Proactive Investors -
- FTSE 100 stays off new intra-day high of 7,949.57
- Wall Street forecast for big gains at open
- Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) rises on bid speculation
2.20pm: First US jobless claims increase in six weeks
US stock futures continued to point significantly higher following the latest US initial jobless claims numbers, which rose by 196,000 in the latest week, up from 183,000 a week earlier, above the consensus for 190,000, and the first increase in six weeks.
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics commented: "The level of claims remains very low but the numbers are striking; unadjusted claims underperformed, relative to the three most recent years when Feb 4 fell on a Saturday, by the most since early November. A single observation proves nothing, but it is striking that this reading comes in the first colder-than-usual week since the polar vortex swept across the country in the week before Christmas."
He added: "The strength of January payrolls was due to lower layoffs than usual for the month, and these data support, at the margin, our view that the relatively mild winter weather was a big part of the story. Our take on the seasonals suggests that claims will be little changed over the next couple weeks, so further increases in claims would get our attention. The bigger picture here, though, is that the surge in layoff announcements reported in the Challenger survey will pass through into claims by late winter/early spring, allowing for the usual lags."
2.10pm: Big target for Shield
Another big mover was Shield Therapeutics PLC, shares in which jumped nearly 14% following an encouraging trading update.
The company's main product, Accrufer, an iron deficiency treatment, has been paired up with Viatris for commercialisation.
According to Shield's corporate broker, finnCap, while the 2022 revenue was slightly below expectations, the real focus for the company and its investors will be its progress in the next three years.
IfinnCap's analysts noted: "We see 2023 as a year where both Shield and Viatris will generate substantial momentum behind Accrufer, with the benefits of their efforts expected to materialise in 2024 and 2025."
Shield Therapeutics rose to 7.00p, with finnCap valuing the stock at 68p.
1.55pm: Some top risers and fallers on the junior market
Fusion Antibodies inched 5.5% higher to 47.5p following the launch of a new commercial service, named Mammalian Display, from its R&D programme. The specialist pre-clinical antibody discovery, engineering and supply group said in a statement that the service is the first from the company’s OptiMAL programme, which Fusion has commercialised and is now offering to clients.
Zytronic slumped 19% as the confirmed supply chain issues were continuing to affect operations this year. The touch screen maker said it was being pushed to purchase materials at inflated prices due to a lack of availability, sending its share price sliding 29p to 121p.
Argo Blockchain fell 12% to 16p after announcing that Peter Wall will step down from his positions as chief executive and interim chairman to pursue other opportunities. Wall has agreed to remain as an advisor to Argo over the next three months to support the transition.
1.00pm: US markets to join the equity party
Wall Street is expected to open higher as investors continue to digest corporate earnings reports and look ahead to weekly jobless claims that are expected to reaffirm a strong labor market in the US.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% in Thursday pre-market trading, while those for the broader S&P 500 index gained 0.8% and contracts for the Nasdaq-100 added 1.2%.
Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), which reported quarterly earnings after the closing bell, jumped 6.5% in after-hours trading after it announced plans to cut 7,000 jobs as part of a shake-up of the entertainment giant.
Mixed earnings reports saw US stocks closing lower on Wednesday as Federal Reserve officials also emphasised the need for more interest rate hikes to tame inflation.
The Dow ended 0.6% lower at 33,949, the Nasdaq fell 1.7% to 11,911 and the S&P 500 lost 1.1% to 4,118. Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) sank more than 7% after the company's AI chatbot answered a question incorrectly in a demonstration.
“Wall Street may have faced something of a shakedown on Wednesday, but sentiment is looking a little more optimistic after traders digested last night’s earnings news,” commented James Hughes, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.
“Futures suggest the Dow is currently on track to more than recover yesterday’s losses and there’s also a general level of support building for the idea that many big tech stocks are moving into oversold territory so could start to attract bargain hunters as they eye the next run higher,” he added.
Hughes noted that a slew of speeches from Fed officials on Wednesday also managed to strike a slightly more balanced tone so while there’s more pain to come, it might not be too onerous.
“Earnings highlights today include PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), Phillip Morris, Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT), Kellogg and PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP), whilst economic data is a little more subdued,” Hughes said.
“Markets will also be watching whether Alphabet manages to find some upside after yesterday’s AI launch problems.”
Weekly unemployment claims data are forecast to reaffirm a strong labour market. Markets expect initial claims to nudge higher towards 195,000 - admittedly still at very low levels - despite nascent signs of significant job losses as witnessed by job cuts seen across the tech sector, according to TickMill Group market analyst Patrick Munnelly.
Back in London and the FTSE has posted a new high of 7,948.24, currently at 7,947.63, up 62.46 points, or 0.79%.
12.25pm: Bank’s Bailey urges pay restraint
A little more from Westminster where Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was also questioned on the impact of whether giving into demands for big pay rises would "fuel wider inflation"?
He noted there is now "quite a wedge between private and public sector pay" in terms of how fast wages are growing with private sector pay up by 7.2% in the three months to November 2022 compared with a year earlier versus 3.3% in the public sector.
"I'll be careful what I say here," he said, before adding that the risks to inflation of handing big pay rises to nurses and teachers "depends on how it's funded".
He said: "I don't think you can say there's no effect. I'm not advocating anything at this point, because this is not territory the Bank of England would want to be in. But in the economics of it, I think it depends whether you raise taxes or whether you borrow, frankly."
He also urged everyone to be "forward looking" in terms of pay demands.
"What I would urge is that, particularly going forwards - because we think inflation is going to fall very rapidly - that that is taken into account."
Little signs of restraint by the FTSE 100 which is purring along, now at 7,944.84, up 59.67, ot 0.76%, just below its new intra-day high.
11.45am: Ofcom to probe inflation-linked price rises
Ofcom has launched a review to examine whether inflation-linked, mid-contract price rises give phone and broadband customers sufficient certainty and clarity about what they can expect to pay.
“We are concerned about the degree of uncertainty consumers face about future price rises specified in contracts on the basis of inflation,” the telecoms regulator said.
“The unpredictability of inflation rates means it can be difficult to know – months in advance – what an inflation-linked price rise will equate to in pounds and pence when consumers enter a contract,” it pointed out.
Its preliminary research found that around a third of mobile and broadband customers do not know whether their provider can increase their price.
Among those who do know their provider can increase their price, around half do not know how this would be calculated. And nearly half of all customers do not know what CPI and RPI measure.
Our review will examine these issues in detail to see whether tougher protections are needed.
Shares in BT (LON:BT) PLC were a weak feature in anotherwise strong market, down 3.3%.
The Footsie appears to have settled for now, still sharply higher at 7,939.92, up 54.75 points, or 0.69%.
11.10am: "Powerful downward forces" on inflation according to Bank Governor
Over in Westminster and leading officials from the Bank of England (BoE) are being grilled by MPs on the Treasury Select Committee.
Governor Andrew Bailey told the committee there are "powerful downward forces" on inflation this year, but said the BoE has still raised interest rates because of concerns that price rises may persist.
“We have got the largest upside skew on our forecasts that we have ever had on inflation… so we do put wait on the persistence rise this year but there are very powerful downward forces this year all things equal,” Bailey said.
He said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which sets interest rates remained “concerned about persistence” of inflation.
He told MPs that the Bank's projection "indicates that inflation will probably come down below 5% by the end of this year".
“There are very powerful base effects that are going to come out this year and that puts a powerful negative trajectory on inflation unless we have some event in the world that we do not know about at the moment,” he commented.
“A lot of that is down to energy prices,” he noted.
Another BoE policymaker said she believes interest rates are "too high right now".
MPC member Silvana Tenreyro told the committee that a "fall in inflation is pretty much guaranteed".
However, she warned that just a fifth of rate rises have fed through to the economy.
Defending the Bank of England over inflation, which presently is five times more than above target at 10.5pc, Ms Tenreyro said that to meet the 2% target in 2022, Britain would have needed deflation in its dominant services sector of 22%.
"To have deflation in services requires a massive recession," she stated.
The hearing is ongoing.
Little sign of powerful downward forces in the equity markets though. The FTSE 100 stands at 7,944.34, up 59.17 points, or 0.75%, just off its new highs established today.
10.35am: German inflation rate eases
The upbeat mood in the markets in London and Europe has also been fuelled by better than expected German inflation figures.
Inflation in Germany eased to 9.2% in January from 9.6%, preliminary data released by the German statistics office showed Thursday.
The figure was well below the 10% economists expected.
Inflation in Germany eased to 9.2 percent in January from 9.6 percent in December, according to much-awaited preliminary data recently released by the German statistics office. https://t.co/PECmFrzFFk— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) February 9, 2023
ING commented that” generally speaking, headline inflation in Germany seems to have reached its peak and, unless there is another large surge in energy prices again, double-digit inflation numbers should be behind us.”
“However, the path towards substantially lower inflation rates won’t be easy,” it cautioned.
10.05am: FTSE 100 on course for 8,000
Another new intra-day high for the FTSE 100 of 7,947.94, currently at 7,943.36, up 58.19 points, or 0.74%.
“At the current rate, we could see the FTSE 100 break through the 8,000 level by early next week, which would represent a long-overdue victory for the UK stock market,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.
He noted “renewed takeover chatter in the banking sector, a well-received set of results from AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) and another leg up from the energy sector,” had helped.
“Reports suggest First Abu Dhabi Bank is still interested in buying Standard Chartered, despite guidance to the contrary last month.”
“If successful, it would represent yet another UK stock acquired by a foreign player. It would also play to the theory that industry players are more likely to buy UK-listed companies than private equity in the current environment.”
“Whereas the sharp rise in the cost of debt has made life harder for private equity to do leveraged deals, a lot of businesses have come out of the pandemic in a robust financial shape and have plenty of cash on their books to buy rivals in their respective sectors.”
9.28am: Entain (LON:ENT) tumbles as MGM boss rules out bid
Shares in Entain PLC, fell 10%, after the boss of MGM ruled out a bid for the FTSE 100-listed gambling firm.
On a call following the release of fourth quarter earnings MGM Resorts CEO and President, Bill Hornbuckle ruled out a move for the owner of Ladbrokes (LON:LCL) and Coral.
“I think it’s time to be definitive and give a little direction. The simple answer on Entain is no, we’ve moved on.”
“I said before that we liked their technology platform and their leadership team. We’re also interested in the content studio business. We think there’s a real play there.”
But he added: “So for now, the answer is no, not with Entain.”
Victoria Scholar, head of investment, interactive investor noted in January 2021 Entain refused an £8.1bn takeover approach arguing the price was too low, adding “today’s share price drop wiping out most of its year-to-date gains.”
But the falls in Entian failed to stop the FTSE 100 which has powered ahead, now at 7,940.86, up 55.69 points, or 0.71%, just below new record highs.
9.18am: House prices continue to fall - RICS
The FTSE 100 has powered to a new all-time high, now at 7,942.89, up 57.72 points, or 0.73%. This is slightly below the intra-day high of 7,943.68 seen today.
Back in the property market and sales and house prices continued to decline across the UK in January, surveyors have reported.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) house price balance, which measures the gap between the percentage of surveyors seeing rises and falls in house prices, fell to -47, the lowest since April 2009, from -42 in December.
This is the ninth monthly fall in new buyer inquiries in a row, while price falls were the most widespread since 2009.
RICS said all the indicators point to a further slowdown in the housing market in the coming months, as borrowing costs have risen sharply.
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said the overall mood of the market as measured by surveyors remained subdued.
"However, it is questionable how much downside to pricing there is likely to be given that recent macro forecasts from the Bank of England and others are now envisaging a less harsh economic environment this year," Rubinsohn said.
9.14am: First Abu Dhabi Bank to press ahead with bid for Standard Chartered - Bloomberg
Shares in Asian-focused bank Standard Chartered PLC (LSE:STAN) top the FTSE 100 risers after a report on Bloomberg that First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is pressing ahead with a potential offer for the lender.
According to Bloomberg, FAB, which is worth about twice as much as Standard Chartered, is exploring an all-cash bid of in the range of $30bn to $35bn, citing sources.
Bloomberg reported: “Under the code name Silver-Foxtrot, officials at the Abu Dhabi bank are working under the radar on a possible bid once a cooling off period required by UK takeover rules elapses, according to people familiar with the matter.”
EXCLUSIVE: First Abu Dhabi Bank is exploring a $35 billion offer for Standard Chartered after putting earlier takeover considerations on hold https://t.co/mKH28GvWWR— Bloomberg Middle East (@middleeast) February 9, 2023
“FAB, as the bank is known, recently completed due diligence on the London-based lender, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private.”
“Any deal would be dependent on market conditions and the performance of Standard Chartered’s share price, they said.”
In January, shares in the FTSE 100-listed bank soared, and then fell as FAB said it had been considering a move for the bank but had decided not to proceed.
Shares in Standard Chartered rose 8.3% in London on Thursday to 746.50p.
9.00am: FTSE higher, bid chat resurfaces at Standard Chartered
London’s blue chips are close to establishing a new record intra-day high with the FTSE 100 at 7,931, up 46 points, or 0.6%, just shy of the fresh peak of 7,934.79 set yesterday.
Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown (LON:HRGV) commented: “’The FTSE 100 powered up in early trade, gaining more ground back towards the record high, as winds of worry over how far interest rates will go are blown away again.”
“The defensive, international nature of the index has provided the seeds of growth, but an improved forecast for the UK economy this week is also adding fresh nutrients.”
Top of the FTSE 100 risers was Standard Chartered as traders reported speculation of a takeover from First Abu Dhabi Bank. “No news as yet but await a statement,” was Neil Wilson’s verdict at markets.com.
But Entain PLC (LSE:ENT) failed to join the winners enclosure falling 11.5% after a Jefferies report pointed to MGM's chief executive officer saying the company had "moved on" from the gambling firm amid recent speculation of a takeover.
“Speculation that MGM might be ready to make a move were shut down by the company during an analyst call,” Streeter noted.
Elsewhere, there was a raft of trading statements for investors to wade through. AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN) was an early riser, up 2.5%, as core earnings per share of $1.38 beat City forecasts of $1.34.
But British American Tobacco PLC (LON:BATS) tumbled 4.2% after the cigarette maker forecast a fall of around 2% in global tobacco industry volumes in 2023 and predicted mid-single figure constant currency adjusted EPS growth.
8.18am: Footsie resumes upward path
The FTSE 100 on Thursday made strong early progress shrugging aside losses in the US as investors in London digested a raft of trading updates and results.
At 8.15am London’s lead index was up 40 points, or 0.5%, at 7,925.
Hawkish comments from a number of Federal Reserve officials dented sentiment as sent US markets lower.
"So, the message is clear. The Fed is not done yet. This means that the rate hikes will continue, and that will continue pressuring the US yields higher as well," said Swissquote Bank's Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
Back in London and there was plenty for investors to digest as a number of FTSE 100 heavyweights released results.
AstraZeneca PLC rose 1.4% after posting double-digit annual sales growth in 2022, despite a weaker fourth quarter, and a pre-tax profit of US$2.50bn compared to a loss of US$265mln a year ago.
Sales growth came from all therapy areas, as well as the addition of Alexion (NASDAQ:ALXN), the pharma giant said.
Consumer goods firm, Unilever PLC (LON:ULVR), also pleased the market with shares up 1%. It reported underlying sales growth of 9% although a decline in operating margins meant underlying profits grew only slightly, up higher to €9.7bn.
The owner of Marmite and Persil also forecast further price rises in the first half of 2023 and expects net material inflation of 2023 of around €1.5bn in the period.
But British American Tobacco PLC fell 4%, despite saying it was on track to hit its £5bn revenue target by 2025.
The cigarette maker forecast a fall of around 2% in global tobacco industry volumes in 2023 and predicted mid-single figure constant currency adjusted EPS growth.
Housebuilder, Redrow PLC (LON:RDW), was another company under pressure in early exchanges, down 1.7%, as it withdrew financial guidance for 2024, warning that this year will be ‘challenging’.
Redrow told the City that “economic and political uncertainty” led to a fall in sales in the second half of 2022.
But as with Barratt Developments PLC (LON:BDEV) earlier in the week Redrow Redrow said demand has picked up so far this year, to 0.51 private reservations per outlet per week, which it calls an “encouraging start” to the second half of its financial year.
8.00am: BAT confident of hitting £5bn revenue target by 2025
British American Tobacco PLC remained confident of hitting its £5bn revenue target by 2025 with profitability in the New Category division now expected one year ahead of target.
The FTSE 100-listed tobacco group made the predictions together with full-year results which showed a 7.7% rise in revenue to £27.6bn, a 2.8% increase in operating profit to £10.5bn and a 1.3% fall in diluted EPS to 291.9p.
Shareholders received a 6% hike to the dividend to 230.9p.
Chief executive Jack Bowles, said “"Our New Category business delivered strong volume, revenue and market share growth and has become a significant contributor to the group's financial delivery. In 2022, we invested more than £2bn in New Categories to drive long-term sustainable growth, while making excellent progress in reducing operating losses by 62%.”
The division is now expected to be profitable in 2024, one year ahead of plan.
BAT said non-combustible product consumers rose 4.2mln to 22.5mln and New Categories revenue jumped 37.0% to £2.8bn with growth in: Vapour (+43.8%), THP (+26.7%) and Modern Oral (+45.6%).
On the traditional cigarette side of the business revenues were underpinned by price/mix improvements of 4.6% although global cigarette value share was flat despite a 10bps rise in US value share.
Cost savings continue apace with £1.9bn delivered so far, well ahead of original £1bn target, with £629mln in 2022.
Looking ahead, BAT forecast a fall of around 2% in global tobacco industry volumes and predicted mid-single figure constant currency adjusted EPS growth, including a c.2% transactional FX headwind, with growth weighted to the second half.
Organic revenue growth between 3% to 5% is expected, on a constant currency basis, with reported growth impacted by timing of the transfer of the Russian and Belarusian businesses which are expected to close in 2023.
Bowles said: “Looking forward, while we expect the macro-economic environment to remain challenging, we will continue to deliver and further accelerate our transformation.”
7.34am: Sales growth remains strong at Unilever
A busy day of results and Unilever PLC (LSE:ULVR) reported strong growth in full-year sales but a margin decline meant operating profits only improved slightly.
Underlying sales growth accelerated to 9.0% driven by all business groups, with price growth of 11.3% and volumes declining 2.1%, the owner of Marmite and Persil said.
Turnover increased 14.5% to €60.1bn and underlying operating profit edged 0.5% higher to €9.7bn despite a margin decline of 230bps driven by input cost inflation.
Its billion+ Euro brands, accounted for 53% of turnover, delivered underlying sales growth of 10.9%, led by strong performances from OMO, Hellmann's, Rexona, Sunsilk and Magnum.
Underlying EPS fell 2.1% to €2.57 while diluted EPS rose 28.8% to €2.99 helped by profit on disposals.
Unilever said cost inflation is set to continue in 2023 and expects net material inflation (NMI) in the first half of 2023 of around €1.5bn billion.
“We anticipate significantly lower NMI in the second half, with a wide range of possible outcomes, though we do not expect cost deflation” it added.
Looking ahead, the company forecast in the first half, underlying price growth will remain high, and volume growth will be negative.
“We expect 2023 underlying sales growth to be at least in the upper half of our multi-year range of 3% to 5%,” Unilever said.
It forecast a modest improvement in underlying operating margin in the full year, reflecting another year of increased investment, and estimated underlying operating margin will be around 16% in the first half.
The FTSE 100 listed firm paid a dividend of €0.4268.
“We are increasingly realising the benefits from the reshaped portfolio, accelerated savings delivery and improved execution,” outgoing chief executive Alan Jope said.
7.00: FTSE 100 set to resume upward path
FTSE 100 is expected to open higher ahead of a busy day of company news.
Spread betting companies are calling the lead index up by around 18 points.
The Dow closed Wednesday down 208 points, 0.6%, at 33,949, the Nasdaq Composite slid 203 points, 1.7%, to 11,911 and the S&P 500 lost 46 points, 1.1%, to 4,118. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 dropped 28 points, 1.4%, to 1,995.
“It’s the continued kind of yin-and-yang, if you will, with, ‘Which way are we going with the Fed?,’” said Sal Bruno, CIO of IndexIQ, as reported by CNBC. “We should expect a lot of choppiness.”
In Asia on Thursday, the Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.1%. In China, the Shanghai Composite was up 1.1%, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was 1.2%. The S&P/ASX 200 in Sydney closed down 0.5%.
Back in London and a busy day of company news sees results from AstraZeneca PLC, Unilever PLC, British American Tobacco PLC and Redrow PLC while trading updates are due from Compass Group PLC (LON:CPG) and Bellway PLC (LON:BWY)
Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets noted: “The pound will also be in focus as Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey testifies to the Treasury Select Committee, along with chief economist Huw Pill, as well as Jonathan Haskel and Silvana Tenreyro discussing the latest interest rate decision, with Tenreyro’s testimony likely to be the most instructive given she voted to keep rates unchanged.”