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Mixed markets: Fed betting begins; watch out for this data

Published 31/08/2023, 10:28
© Reuters.

Investing.com - European markets are mixed - {Ibex 35, CAC 40, DAX...- ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report data.

Meanwhile, analysts report that "the publication of August's net private job creation figures by the payrolls processor ADP, which fell short of analysts' consensus expectations, was welcomed by investors who see these figures as confirmation that growth in the US economy is slowing and the labour market is cooling down, In both cases, slightly, which could make it easier for the Fed 'to take its foot off the accelerator' and not raise its official rates at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September", explained Link Securities.

"However, the fact that this slowdown is not occurring in an alarming way means that a possible scenario of this economy entering recession in the short term is ruled out, something that was taken for granted a few months ago. This economic scenario, "neither too cold nor too hot", is ideal for the US stock markets to maintain the good performance shown so far this year. Our doubt, and that of a large part of the market, is how long this can be maintained", these experts add.

"Yesterday's ADP jobs report came in below expectations (177,000 'vs' 195,000 estimated 'vs' 371,000 previous), adding to Tuesday's weak vacancies JOLTS. We will see if the official employment report for August (Friday) confirms this thesis of moderation in the labour market, necessary according to Powell to bring inflation back to its 2% target, thus allowing for a less hawkish tone from the Fed", point out Renta 4 (BME:RTA4).

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"The weak ADP reflects a cooling labour market. It was in line with the JOLTS (job openings) released this week and was the prelude to what will happen with the payrolls on Friday. This is what the Fed is looking for, to cool the labour market to curb underlying inflation and wages," conclude Bankinter (BME:BKT).

Translated from Spanish using DeepL

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