Royal Bank Of Scotland

The UK economy grew by 1.4% in 2019 – slightly better than the 1.3% in 2018 but still far from a stellar performance. It looks like the government is serious about using fiscal policy ammunition...

As the General Election campaign gets under way, three main parties revealed their manifestos last week. All of them promise a lot more public investment, especially Labour which intends to almost...

Both Germany and the UK escaped recession, figures last week showed. But both have reason to be concerned about their near-term outlook. UK election campaigning suggests either a (i) large or (ii)...

Encouraging discussions between UK PM Johnson and Irish president Varadkar fuelled optimism of a Brexit resolution. However, the thorny issue of the Irish border remains a major stumbling block. Time...

It has proved difficult to replace the “infamous” Irish border backstop. It is still unclear if the PM has enough time and creativity to secure a deal before the mid-October deadline....

The UK Supreme Court ruled unanimously that proroguing of the Parliament was unlawful. The Parliamentary session has resumed, but there is little clarity on Brexit’s form, date or on the timing...

Attacks on two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia led to a 6% reduction in global oil supply and a 15% oil price spike within days. Saudi Arabian assurances that oil production levels will return to...

Over the last week the government’s working majority was reduced from plus 1 to minus 45. There is still no clarity on the Brexit outcome or the timing of a general election. All of this against...

Will it? Won’t it? On Friday we learned that, after delivering a strong first-quarter performance, UK GDP contracted by 0.2% in the three months to June. This marks the first outright decline in...

As the new Prime Minister prepares to enter Downing Street, he can draw some comfort from data indicating that consumers, buoyed by the strong labour market, are keeping the economy ticking over. But...

An unexpected decline in April GDP, driven by sharply weaker manufacturing activity, has increased the risks of UK growth stagnating, or even contracting, in Q2 2019. Still, continued favourable...

Global trade tensions are ratcheting up. Whilst the US and China trade blows President Trump warned of a 5% increase in tariffs on Mexican imports, rising 5% a month up to a maximum 25% in October....

The resignation of UK PM Theresa May has prompted a flurry of contenders for the Tory leadership - the contest officially begins June 10th with the victor likely announced by the end of July. Boris...

The UK labour market remains in rude health, a key support for the household sector. In contrast, US and Chinese retail sales disappointed. Meanwhile, German growth rebounded in early 2019 but the...

US/Sino trade tensions are rising. US President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on Chinese imports has prompted threats of retaliation by China, posing downside risks to the global economy...