AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ:AZN) can get a boost from the probability that it will close out its US kidney damage lawsuit in New Jersey prior to the first bellwether case in March 2023, according to analysts at Citi.
The UK pharma is one of several firms embroiled in US legal action over possible damage caused by proton pump inhibitor (PPI) heartburn drugs such as Nexium, launched by Astra in the US in 2001.
The Citi analysts believe the most likely outcome is that the judge is delaying her response to the Defendant Motion for summary judgement on the grounds of pre-emption, to encourage the plaintiffs to settle.
“Alternatively, but with a lower probability, Judge Cecchi may have delayed the start of the bellwether cases as she disagrees with the conclusions of Special Master Reisman and grants the defendant's motion to dismiss on grounds of pre-emption," they said.
Either scenario would be materially positive to Astra's depressed share price, the US bank's analysts added, as would positive interim DESTINY-Breast06 data with Enhertu at the year-end and positive TROPION-Lung-01 data in March 2023.
The Citi analysts said their 2023 and 2024 core EPS forecasts for Astra are 5% and 17% above consensus and repeated them alongside a price target of £130 and a 'buy' recommendation.
Shares in Astra rose 1% to £103.56.