From last month’s commentary on Sugar ‘It will be interesting to see how things work out as I am hopeful to see a retest of the recent 12.37 low and possibly the low at 11.91. If we maintain where we are then as mentioned the key will be the recent 50% Fib at 13.58 & the 61.8% Absolute Fib at 13.83.’.
It is interesting to note the various movements that made up the month of May & why both the highest & lowest levels mentioned last time worked out! Following the Key Reversal Down on the Daily Chart on the 30th of Apr we duly had a move down.
However, the very next day we had a KR Up with another KR Up the day after that! All looked well for a try higher and we moved up to the then 50% Fib at 13.58. We opened there on the 13th and went two tics higher to 13.60 before slamming off with a big KR Down! This started the move down over the latter part of May and we duly broke last Wednesday 11.91 for a new low.
However, please note, we have only had ONE close below 11.91 and that it cannot be consecutive. 11.91 still rules as support and if you will note the two circles marking Tine crossovers on the Daily Chart above, the lower & first indicated the day of the KR Down.
The second & higher one on the 28th of May notes the importance of that date. The question is whether we do eventually have two consecutive closes below 11.91…or not! At the moment I am tempted to say we will though I have misgivings and would suggest watching closely the action over the next few days. If it breaks lower then the next support is the 2009 low at 11.32 along with the Lower Tine of the Schiff Pitchfork (currently 11.27).
If it does not then short term safety would be over 13.54 though an interim safety level would be at 12.72. You’d need to close over the Long MA (currently 14.52) to make it neutral. Two final points, as all MAs are pointing Down, I feel obliged to move the bullet point above into full bearish plus I note on the Monthly Chart that though we do not have a KR Down, we do have a Monthly Reversal Down.
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