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European Banking Concerns Unwind The No-Trump Jump

Published 27/09/2016, 11:13
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Stock markets dropped on Tuesday. Declines in prominent German and Swiss banks have revived fears of a European banking crisis. Stocks had opened moderately higher in a small nod to establishment candidate Hilary Clinton winning the US presidential debate.

S&P 500 futures and the Mexican peso both rallied during the presidential debate. Conventional wisdom suggests US stocks and the peso would benefit more under a Hillary Clinton presidency than under Donald Trump, who has openly attacked US trade deals with Mexico. Linking the Mexican currency to the Presidential debate is a little tenuous. The gains in the peso and the S&P 500 were also in part to short-covering as they came of record low and 2-week lows respectively.

The FTSE 100 erased early gains to fall in early trading with the Basic Materials sector contributing the most to the declines.

Shares of Wolseley (LON:WOS) fell over 3% to the bottom of the FTSE 100 after the plumbing and building supplier said it would cut 800 jobs and close 80 branches. The restructuring at its UK arm will cost Wolseley around £100m and took away from the rise in profits and dividend hike. Cutting costs in the UK while focusing growth efforts on its profit-driving US business suggests Wolseley is moving closer to being an American-only business. Building materials supplier Travis Perkins (LON:TPK) dropped in sympathy.

Shares of Thomas Cook (LON:TCG) were under pressure despite the company maintaining its full-year profit guidance. Investors fear that Thomas Cook will be unable to replace the sharp drop-off in demand for holidays to Turkey, especially when the fall in the pound makes holidays to Europe more expensive.

US stocks look set for a higher open but are well-off afterhours highs. US traders are fading the no-Trump jump in equity index futures. There is a fear that Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) is setting up as Europe’s Lehman Brothers moment. US banks have been taking advantage of the difficulties in the European banking sector by taking market share but trouble at a multinational with a big presence in US capital markets like Deutsche Bank (LON:0H7D) carries huge counterparty risk.

Nike (NYSE:NKE) shares will be in focus ahead of its quarterly earnings update.

USA pre-opening levels

S&P 500: 4 points higher at 2,150

Dow Jones: 26 points higher at 18,120

Nasdaq 100: 9 points higher at 4,826

DISCLAIMER: CMC Markets is an execution only provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.

No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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