Was it really only last Thursday that we saw the best US employment report in a long time and the first time in years that saw jobs gains to the tune of +200k for five months in a row, yet here we are less than a week later, and the declines of the last couple of days have seen all of last week's gains in Europe pretty much wiped out.
While the slide in stock markets over the past few days may have been predicated over nervousness about the imminent start of earnings season, there were also a number of other factors at play as well, including concerns about a global economy that could well under perform into the second half of this year.
On Monday we saw disappointing economic data from Germany, which has raised concerns that the broader European economy could well be set to flat line into the second half of the year.
Still at least the Germans have a place in the World Cup Final to console them after their football team dismantled a poor Brazilian team last night in what was the most one sided semi-final I have ever seen in my life.
Monday's German data was followed yesterday by a surprisingly poor set of numbers from the UK, which somewhat flew in the face of PMI reports that suggested a strong performance in May.
On its own these may not have been too much of a concern given that economic data seems much less of a driver of markets in these days of copious liquidity, but the prospect of yet more fines on European banks by US regulators helped push financials sharply lower as investors speculated as to where the regulatory microscope might fall next.
Later today we also have the latest minutes from the 17th/18th June FOMC meeting and while we don’t expect too many surprises from them, given recent commentary from some Fed officials the market could well be underestimating the timing of a rise in interest rates in the US.
The fact is a continued improvement in US data brings the potential for an eventual rise in rates that much closer, and despite recent comments from Fed chief Janet Yellen about rates remaining low for some time to come, she won't be able to hide behind those words for ever, despite Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota downplaying any inflation risk in comments last night.
His comments aren't altogether that surprising given he is probably the most dovish member of the current FOMC, and certainly won't change any prospect that other FOMC members might well be a lot more concerned than he is about rising prices.
As for this morning's session Europe's markets look set to open slightly higher after Alcoa (NYSE:AA) posted earnings that came in well ahead of expectations after the US close last night, prompting a little bit of a pullback in sentiment late on.
EUR/USD – still in the overall uptrend since the 2012 lows. The broader range remains intact and while we hold above the 1.3500 level, the risk of a move back towards 1.3700 remains more likely. The key support remains at 1.3485 where we have trend line support from the 2012 lows.
GBP/USD – 1.7180 continues to cap the topside, with the risk for further gains towards 1.7330, while above 1.7040. 1.7330 is the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2007 highs at 2.1160 and the lows at 1.3500 in 2009. Only a move below 1.6910 support delays the scenario above.
EUR/GBP – yesterday's pullback appears to be finding selling interest around the 0.7960 area, which had acted as support on the way down. The 0.7880 remains the next target while below the 0.7960 area, with a move through here potentially targeting the 0.8035 area. The pressure remains on the downside while we remain below trend line resistance from the March highs now sitting just below the 0.8055 level.
USD/JPY – slipping below 101.80 keeps the broader range intact as we continue to play the range between 101.20 and the range highs just below 103.00.
Equity market calls
FTSE 100 is expected to open 3 points lower at 6,735
DAX is expected to open 20 points higher at 9,793
CAC 40 is expected to open 8 points higher at 4,350
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