Crude Oil
I left last time with the market between the Medium (currently 66.19) and Long (currently 61.75) MAs. Effectively we were in a Neutral market after coming down from the attempt at 73.00. What became obvious was the market didn't like being there, even as we spent most of June within, it became evident what i t wished to do.
Two weeks ago we had a Weekly Key Reversal Up. This set in motion the train of events which have led us here to a new 2018 high. We've rallied up to the small congestion band marked which actually originates from 2014...and my most recent concern is that it may be enough. The band is small but we today had shown a Long Legged Indecisive Doji Cross...the first one in quite a while. There is also one other item.
You will see top left on the Daily Chart a Target 'X (2015 - 2016)'. This relates to a very, very large Reverse H+S formed over the 2014 - 2016 period...there are two actually and this is the first one. The actual Target ' X ' is in the 76.35 area and given that it was so long ago and so large, it may be enough to have reached where we are...so caution.
Nevertheless, the Bullish Apr - Jun Andrews Pitchfork is still on the Daily Chart above as is the 50% Fib of this move at 69.43. We'd need closes under the 5 0% Fib to just move it into a Neutral state and ideally Neutral would see the market under the Medium MA. Given all this and all MAs are pointing upwards, I'm minded to move the bullet point above into mildly Bullish.
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