Coffee
Last month I pointed out how the then move below the 2018 50% Fib at 124.40 (now 122.55) was '...negative... quite negative!' yet we'd managed to form a small Bullish Channel over April and going into June.
This Bullish Channel caused the bullet point above to move to Neutral as in addition we saw the market start to establish itself between the Medium MA (currently 119.95) and the Long MA (currently 123.85). This lasted until about the middle of June when we had the following:
- A drop below the newly established very recent 50% Fib (currently 119.35),
- 2 Key Reversals Down within a week, one on Thursday and one the following Monday
- A Dead Cross of the Short MA (currently 116.80) going down through the Medium MA...and another Dead Cross a few days later with the Short MA going down through the Short/Medium MA (currently 119.45).
All these turned the market lower and despite one final try back up a week ago at the 119.36 level, we headed down and made new 2018 lows whilst forming a Weekly Key Reversal Down as well.
We've actually punched down through the lows of 2016 (113.35) and 2014 (112.45) and we're just short offsetting a congestion area 108.50 - 109.90 which has within it the Middle Tine of the 2017 Schiff Pitchfork (currently 109.90) that has been running the Bearish angle of attack of this market...for ages! We've halted declining today but it would not be a surprise if we restart again. Remember, we'd need closes over the Medium MA to just go into Neutral. With all this in mind, I've started the Bearish journey above and moved the bullet point into mildly Bearish...I anticipate fully Bearish soon but thought it best to run the process properly.
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