Coffee: Trend Down?
The question here is 'Can I draw any further Bearish Trendlines, Pitchforks or other Lines?'. The answer is probably 'Yes!' but I have used up enough crayons on this Monthly Chart above already so I won't. I would say on (perhaps on the Bullish side) that there is a lot of Indecision in recent action, lots of Indecisive Doji Crosses and Indecisive Spinning Tops. However, when I look at the MAs and see the possible Bearish Bow Tie Formation then my suggestion of such an idea baulks. The failed try higher in 2016 has seen the market fall below such key levels as the 50% Absolute Fib at 153.23, in fact we are currently testing the 38.2% Absolute Fib at 117.03 which only shows how much the rally gave away.
Apart from this set of Fibs, the only other significant supports are the 2013-to-date Uptrend (currently 113.65) - I don't know how strong that will be, the 2016 low at 111.04, the 2013 low at 100.93, the low of 2006 at 93.20 and low of 2005 at 84.04. This whole action lower of every reducing highs and similar lows is looking quite Bearish I'm afraid. I would therefore suggest that we may well test the 2013 low at 100.93 again and thereafter I've nothing really till the 2006 and 2005 numbers apart from the Bearish Tines of various Pitchforks. It's come to a pretty state when you rely on the Bearish Tines to halt a decline. Given the MAs and the state of the market, I think it appropriate to give a fully Bearish bullet point above.
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