Bonds Analysis & Opinion

The collective wisdom of the bond market for much of this year has been betting that interest rates would soon peak and fall. But those bets appear to be unwinding in the wake of Wednesday’s...

Stocks are tanking as markets price in higher for longer scenario Meanwhile, bonds have declined for 2 years in a row and are on track for a third bearish year As economic weakness sets in eventually...

Fixed-income investors looking for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are still waiting, but that hasn’t stopped low-rated bonds from posting strong gains in 2023.The upside performance...

In Our Elevator Pitch For Bonds, we asked: “Is this time different?” Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to trend higher in August, rising further above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three...

Current yields continue to show signs of peaking, based on a broad review of the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. In each of our periodic updates of yields so far this year, the numbers...

The previous article discussed the potential ramifications related to policy actions that China and Japan might take. These large U.S. Treasury bondholders could temporarily upset the Treasury market,...

“China, Japan, inflation, deficits, and QT, oh my!” – The chant of bond traders watching yields creep higher.Despite the highest yields in 15 years, some bearish bond traders think...

Rising interest rates are beginning to spook investors. And rightfully so.It’s been the fastest rise in rates in decades. And just when we thought interest rates were easing, they pushed higher...

For much of the year, the bond market has been embracing expectations that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have peaked or were about to peak. The underlying logic centered on the...

The 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade at a level well above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate, but the gap suggests that further increases in the benchmark rate are facing...

The global rise in interest rates may be peaking, a view that’s helped lift most corners of foreign bond markets year to date, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday’s close (Aug....

Global bonds rocked by Bank of Japan changes, Fitch downgrade, and Fed's outlook. Long-term bond market sees rare turbulence. Investors split: Buffett and Musk optimistic, Ackman bearish. A triple...

Interest rates continue climbing this year, but that hasn’t stopped bonds from rallying in 2023 when measured in total-return terms. The main exception is long-dated US Treasuries. Otherwise,...