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Last month we looked at how stock market volatility ebbs and flowsHow Monitoring Volatility Regimes Helps Anticipate Key Market Pivots through time. Let’s pick up this thread and do the same for...
If you have been reading my public articles on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) over the last half a year, then you would know of my expectation to see the bond market rally into...
Two hundred and sixty Fed meetings will occur between the issuing and maturing of a United States 30-Year Treasury bond. There will be 260 times when the Fed raises, lowers, or does nothing with Fed...
Turmoil in the bank industry and renewed concerns of economic headwinds are driving expectations that Federal Reserve's interest-rate hiking is at or near an end. In turn, the outlook has sparked a...
Bank contagion has officially spread to international markets, raising fears that last week’s dramatic failures of U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank may be just the start...
With bond yields (and interest rates) rising sharply, it’s understandable that most of the world is hoping for lower rates.Lower interest rates allow for more flexible lending to both businesses...
There is a time to be long, a time to be short, and a time to go fishing.As inflation skyrocketed and the Fed turned hawkish, bonds were kryptonite for investors for most of 2022: it was time to be...
Treasury yields up + market expectations for the path of Fed interest rate hike up = bad news for stocks. Stocks in Europe and Asia slipped Wednesday after US markets registered their worst day...
After taking a beating last year, US fixed income securities have clawed back some of the losses so far in 2023, based on a set of ETFs through yesterday's close (Feb. 9). But with the Federal Reserve...
Through the recent gyrations, markets seem to lack the conviction needed to push new lows in rates. The resulting range-trading environment brings lower rates of volatility and better risk appetite....
When I started working in the financial markets, bond traders were the cool kids. The equity guys drove Maseratis and acted like buffoons, but the bond guys drove sensible style like Mercedes and...
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this week and Chairman Jerome Powell says more hikes are coming. The bond market disagrees.The 2-Year Treasury yield – widely monitored as a proxy...
I was going to write a technical column today about how the sensitivity of bonds (and consequently, lots of other asset prices) to interest rates increase as interest rates decline, and discuss the...
Interest rates have risen rather quickly as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation. Will the move be a case of too far, too fast?Today’s long-term monthly chart of the United States...
Markets need to re-think the sustainability of the bond rally seen in the past month. Nominal and real rates are seen up. But not by very much. With no sense as of yet that the Fed is done, we...