Fears of pandemic send stocks lower, safe havens in demand
Reuters
Published Jan 30, 2020 07:10
By Tom Westbrook and Swati Pandey
SINGAPORE/SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian stocks and currencies tumbled further on Thursday, as the rising death toll from a virus spreading from China led airlines to cut flights and stores to close, increasing pressure on the world's second-largest economy as fears of a pandemic grow.
European stocks are also set to fall. EuroSTOXX 50 futures (STXEc1) and DAX futures (FDXc1) are down 0.8%. FTSE futures (FFIc1) point to a negative open in London. U.S. stock futures (ESc1), down 0.6%, suggest a negative open on Wall Street.
The number of confirmed deaths from the virus in China has climbed to 170 with 7,711 people infected, and more cases are being reported around the world.
Chinese factories have extended holidays, global airlines cut flights and Sweden's Ikea said it would shut all of its stores in China to help contain the outbreak. Economists have begun slashing the country's growth outlook.
"The news flow in the past couple of hours has been quite bleak," said Prashant Newnaha a Singapore-based strategist at TD Securities. "So the risk off tone continues."
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 2% to a seven-week low and has now dropped for six straight sessions.
Japan's Nikkei (N225) fell nearly 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) fell 2.3% and Taiwan's benchmark index (TWII) slumped 5.8% in its first session since the Lunar New Year break.
Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries, which fall when prices rise, hit a three-month low of 1.5600% (US10YT=RR). Gold nudged higher .
The World Health Organisation's Emergency Committee is due to reconvene later in the day to decide whether the rapid spread of the virus now constitutes a global emergency.
"There's a buyers strike. Lot of reasons to sell and no reason to buy, so you're seeing this bleeding," said Chris Weston, Head of Research at Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone.
"There is some concern about tonight's presser by the WHO. The fear is that they might raise the alarm bells...so people are taking money off the table."
Singapore-traded futures for Chinese markets (SFCc1) - which have been closed since Jan. 23 and re-open on Monday - dropped 2% and have fallen 10% in the 10 days since the spread of the virus began to roil markets.
CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES
Trade exposed Asian currencies and commodities sensitive to Chinese demand extended losses as economists made deep cuts to their China growth forecasts.
The Chinese yuan reversed Wednesday's gains to weaken 0.2%. The Australian dollar hit a 3-1/2-month low and the kiwi dollar was a fraction above a two-month low.
The Taiwan dollar fell half a percentage point to its lowest this year. The Thai baht , exposed to inbound tourism from China, has shed 3% in a week.
Get The App
Oil prices, a barometer of the expected impact of the virus on the world's economy, resumed their slide. Brent crude (LCOc1) shed a percentage point and has dropped 10% since Jan 20.
Chicago soybean futures slid for an eighth straight session on growing fears that promised Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods will not materialise.
"China is the kingpin of the global commodities market," ING economists said in a note. "The longer factories remain closed, travel restricted and construction stalled, the larger the ramifications."
SARS 2.0?
Most analysts have looked to the impact from the 2002-2003 spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed 800 people and pounded tourism and confidence, albeit briefly.
Yet the number of infections has already almost exceeded the 8,000 total SARS cases and, nearly two decades later, China's share of the world economy has increased fourfold.
Citi expects China's 2020 growth to slow to 5.5% because of the virus, after previously predicting it to be 5.8%, with the sharpest slowdown this quarter. That is even more bearish than J.P. Morgan and ING economists, who forsee a slowdown to 5.6.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged on Wednesday the risks from any slowdown in the Chinese economy but said it was too early to say what the extent of the impact would be on the United States.
"SARS is a base case but until we get more information it's very difficult for markets to gauge," said Jim McCafferty, Joint Head of APAC Equity Research at Nomura in Hong Kong.
"It's very difficult for investors to get a gauge for the magnitude of this, if this is going to be multi-day or a multi-week or a multi-month event."
Written By: Reuters
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.