Reasons for HOPE

Benzinga

Published Oct 03, 2022 15:23

Updated Oct 03, 2022 16:13

Reasons for HOPE

Good Morning Everyone!

Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN), one of the world’s largest banks is in trouble. Stock trading at record low, credit default swaps at 2009 highs and CEO says bank is at a “critical moment”. Buckle up another bumpy week ahead!

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/30/22; % YTD

MARKET UPDATE U.S. stocks heading for their worst performance since the 2009 financial crisis

  • Worst start in any year since 2002

    • S&P500 YTD -25%

    • NASDAQ YTD -32%

  • Has closed lower 6 of the past 7 weeks

TSX holding up much better

  • YTD -13.1%

Investors are asking: Are rates and the U.S. dollar peaking?

  • Investors waiting for the sell side to cut their 2nd half 2022 and 2023 estimates

  • New year-to-date lows to start Q4

  • Investors positioned defensively: Low cash levels and low hedge fund leverage

  • The bond market is calmer to start Q4, which should help equities stabilize

  • Seasonality is reason for HOPE

  • Mid-term Q4 quarters tend to have good returns historically in this time period

  • The S&P 500 is 10% below its 63-day moving average. It’s only crossed that threshold 4 times in the past 10 years.

  • Stocks and Bonds have never BOTH been down year-over-year in 3 consecutive quarters – EVER

  • Perhaps, earnings season will turn the market around

10yr 3.7%'

US$ 112 up 14% in 2022, FX will squeeze U.S. earnings

C$ 72.8

VIX 31

Crude $84 +5%

  • OPEC+ meets this week

  • may cut production to balance weaker demand by 1 million bbl/d

  • Press Conference is October 5 (Wednesday)

Earnings

  • None

CRYPTO UPDATE Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) suffers 4th major outage

  • Misconfigured node took network offline Friday

Former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky: confirmed scumbag

  • Allegedly withdrew $10 million from company ahead of freezing customer accounts

Digital asset flows (into popular crypto ETPs, mutual funds, and OTC trusts) last week

  • Third consecutive week of (low) inflows

  • Bitcoin (3-week streak) and Ethereum (2-week streak) led

  • Broad outflows in altcoins

    • Most effected: Polygon (CRYPTO: MATIC), Avalanche (CRYPTO: AVAX), Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA)
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