German 10 Year Bond Yields: Who Would Have Thought
Jeroen Blokland | May 31, 2019 11:56
The 10-Year German bond yield has fallen to -0.20%, very close to its all-time low back in 2016. That in itself is pretty remarkable, taking into account that worries about deflation and hence the need for quantitative easing were much bigger then than they are now. However, trade tensions are increasing after President Trump vowed to impose tariffs on Mexican imports in an effort to stop immigrants from entering the US, and their (potential) effect on global growth has sent investors fleeing to government bonds again.
In addition, with the exception of the US, none of the other major central banks have been able to meaningfully normalise monetary policy. This could mean central banks have to start up or increase quantitative easing once more, which would result in lower bond yields around the globe. But looking at the speed at which yields are currently coming down, investors might be getting just a bit ahead of themselves.
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