Wheat: Trend Up?
Eddie Tofpik | Mar 05, 2018 06:08
Wheat
What an interesting past month and start to this month has been and is at this time. As Feb progressed I realised that we had a likely Reverse H+S Pattern based on the late Oct 2017 - late Jan 2018 action. We'd started the build-up for this during late Jan and most of Feb and we'd had two Bullish Golden Crosses during Feb as well. The topside had been limited by the Upper Channel (currently 489) parallel to the Dec 2017-to-date Uptrend (currently 450).
This Upper Channel has recently been broken on the Upside and is now support. The move up went to and through the Reverse H+S Target of about 491 (now support), then through the key 50% Fib of the Jul - Dec 2017 50% Fib at 492 (now support) until we started to run out of steam at the key 50% Absolute Fib at 515 (resistance).
Now this is the interesting bit...the final two moves up were large Bullish White Marubozos and the action today is currently forming at time of writing a Bearish Harami and also a possible Bearish Pipe Top. Watch this one carefully over the next few hours and days! As we haven't yet formed a Bearish Pattern, I'm sill going to maintain the mildly Bullish bullet point above. Without today's actions I would have moved to fully Bullish and if we close where we are now then I may well be moving the bullet point back towards Neutral next time.
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