Wheat: Trend Down?
Eddie Tofpik | Jan 01, 2018 07:00
Wheat: Trend Down?
Two years ago I wrote the '...band of support doing from 2005 to 2006 that you can see on the left of the Monthly Chart above.' and I further clarified that writing last year by detailing the area as 'It is made up of levels at 357%, 339 %, 337 14, 321 % and 292.'. I could stop now as that is where we have been heading all this time, not necessarily this past year but over many years. This past year we tried up to test the combo of 2008-todate Downtrend (currently 468) and the 5 Year MA resistance (currently 526 %). The market managed to penetrate the Downtrend - no closes over it - but baulked at the pressure brought by the 5 Year MA and rejected it by moving back lower. This past Dec saw the low for the year 2017 though we finished strongly.
However, it was also the fourth lowest month since 2007...not Bullish inspiring I'm afraid. Nevertheless, the band of support previously mentioned might be quite strong as the market has been trying to avoid it for over a decade. I'd suggest only consecutive monthly closes over 550 would negate the downside and put it into proper Neutral as it seems prices need to test down to see if they can rise up. With all but one MA still heading south (and that one might well do so soon) I'm minded to keep the bullet point at fully Bearish unless we have something dramatic happen.
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