Wheat Trend?
Eddie Tofpik | Jul 04, 2018 09:50
I wrote last time
So where now? An obvious target would be, now that the previous AP is obliterated, the 50% Fib of the move up since late Apr at 519. Below that we have a mess of Fib supports between 515 - 507 and I've doubts as to whether we could tackle all that in one sitting...or even a few sittings.
We made one attempt at the day of last time of writing down to the 519 level but this was swiftly rejected. It then took nearly two weeks to finally have a crack at the 519 level...in the process forming a new May-to-date Downtrend (currently 530). However, the attempt lower was successful and we'd obviously spent the intervening time in gathering ammunition as we broke down through the band of Fib supports 515 - 507 in just over a day.
We then proceeded to punch down through the Medium MA (currently 499) and bounce up from a state of Neutral and over the Long MA (currently 472) and the previously mentioned Fib band 515 - 507. This is where we've spent the rest of June and only yesterday did we manage a big Key Reversal Down on the Daily Chart above. However, today...no follow through...so far! This then prompts the question...are we too timid to go through either the Long MA and some associated supports and Fibs plus are we also too timid to overcome the Band of Fibs 515 - 507? Are we going sideways or consolidating for perhaps another Halfway Hesitation down or building for a try back up?
It is too early to tell. However, the KR Down yesterday and its subsequent lack of action speaks volumes! With two Fibs rising, one sideways and one flat lining, I think it appropriate to move the bullet point above away from the previous mildly Bullish and into Neutral...till we see better.
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