Wheat Technicals: Target The Long MA At 586
Eddie Tofpik | Dec 02, 2014 14:46
Last month I spoke about the niggling feeling I had about Wheat, especially the Bullish Matching noted on the Monthly Chart and as a precaution I moved the bullet point above into neutral as I had concerns about how quickly prices were recovering. Since then this had been initially abated as prices eased off immediately after my report and we even had two consecutive closes back below the nearby 50% Fib (currently 522).
However, this wasn’t enough as prices bounced up off the Fib combo around 509 – 510 and headed higher still. They held off trying up through the previous Jul 2011 low at 565 but last Tuesday we had a Key Reversal Up on the Daily Chart above and last Friday prices punched up through these new recent highs!
So what next? Well, the obvious target is the Long MA (currently at 586) which is acting as resistance but another target is also nearby, the May – Sep 50% Fib at 600! These two are the immediate targets with the Upper Tine of the 2012 – 2014 move (currently 628) a supplementary target though this is within a Fib congestion area 625 – 632. I have also drawn my first Bullish Andrews Pitchfork of the action Sep – Nov, it seems to fit fine with the action as support/resistance numbers currently are at 539, 564 & 590. This last one is coincident with the Long MA and can be treated for the moment as one resistance area. So overall, a try higher to 586 – 590, 600 & possibly 624. Only consecutive closes below 522 currently would negate this.
Bullet point above goes into mildly bullish. Finally, there is only one possible volatility date to watch out for that I can see – the 8th, possibly the 9th – just be careful around there!
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