Weekly Technicals: North American, European Oilseeds
Eddie Tofpik | Sep 03, 2018 07:45
Chicago Soybeans (Second Month Continuous)
Key feature this past week is without doubt the Key Reversal Down yesterday. Second best feature's the Dead Cross of the Short MA (currently 864) down through the Short/Medium MA (currently 867) on Wednesday. It falls a long way behind the KR Down...though it may possibly have contributed to the cause of the KR Down in the first place. Today... we've a mild pullback up after such a strong indicator. We currently have very little recent support below the market. There's the July Low at 811 and then next is the August 2007 low at 804...over a decade old. It brings into contrast the earlier mentioned possibility of the May-to-date action being a huge Bear Flag. ' XI ' at about 680 would be the first Target whilst 'X2' at about 660 would be the extended Target. Topside...you'd need consecutive closes over the very recent 50% Fib at 861 to just temporarily halt the fall.
Chicago Soybean Meal (Second Month Continuous)
Unlike Soybeans, we did not have a Key Reversal Down in the Meal. Instead we'd a Bearish Engulfing Pattern with a new 2018 low yesterday. This puts us in the frame for a potential test of the 2017 low at 293.00. Today we've had a pullback up so far but I also draw your attention to Chartbook mid page on the right. We've a possible and imminent Dead Cross of the Medium MA (currently 350.30) down through the Long MA (currently 350.20)... a possible kick in the teeth for any prospective Bulls. This is not all. Stepping back, we could see the May-to-date acton as a possible Bear Flag, giving us a first Target 'X' (off the bottom of the Chart) in the 282 area and an extended Target ' X I ' in the 257 area. Topside, you'd need to have consecutive closes over the most recent 50% Fib at 321.20 to even hint at haling temporarily the market decline. However, I note the congestion support band between 295.00—300.00 from August last year.
Chicago Soybean Oil (Second Month Continuous)
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The feature this week has been the Key Reversal Up on Monday...a good pattern that has seemingly failed. What's more surprising is since the 13th of August we've had clear Patterns pointing in both directions... neither working. It's clear the reason we've not moved lower on a Bearish Harami or KR Down is the oft mentioned 21st Century Uptrend (currently 27.72). I've commented before '...don't expect to break the Uptrend on this go either...it took 18 years to build.Jt may take some time to /a///...fair enough! However, we keep trying to lower which gives an idea of the Bearish pressure with failed Bullish Haramis and Engulfing Patterns and then this week, a likely failed KR Up. We do have the rapidly approaching Medium MA (currently 29.69) and as I wrote earlier this month '...it may be this hitting the market may cause a move or reaction.'.
Paris Rapeseed (Second Month Continuous)
More than a month ago I wrote 'We're overall still Bullish within the Lower (currently 369.75) and Middle Tine (currently 387.75) of the Apr—Jun Bullish Schiff Pitchfork.'. These sill stand. During August we breached the Middle Tine resistance but failed to close over it effectively. Recently we tried down to the Lower Tine support but this and the nearby key very recent 50% Fib at 369.00 didn't allow any real test and we moved up this week. The market's sill basically Bullish though the Long MA (currently 359.00) is sideways...yet currently below us. In between the Tines we've the 50% Fib of the 2016—2017 move at 379.00 which may be effective resistance as it's part of the 379.25—377.75 Gap last week. Should we follow on next week and not wish to try once more to test the strong looking support then that'd be an obvious topside resistance.
Winnipeg Canola (Second Month Continuous)
This week started Gapping down, followed through, reversed back up with a Pipe Bottom and seems to be ending the week higher testing the newly minted 50% Fib at 506.10. Interestingly, over August all we've done is form an Indecisive Doji Cross...managing little. So what now? Well, next week may bring another test of the 506.10 level and if higher then we've the March—July 50% Fib at 512.00 as resistance. In fact, the whole 506—512 area is resistance dating back from June. Then there are the MAs. The Medium MA (currently 513.70) will likely form a Dead Cross down through Ithe Long MA (currently 513.00) late next week and close to the 512 area so punching up through all that will be quite a feat. Below...we've the newly formed Uptrend (currently 494.80) but we've only just left it and seems unlikely to see a fresh move to test so soon.
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