Weekly Technicals On North American, European Oilseeds
Eddie Tofpik | Mar 11, 2018 05:42
Chicago Soybeans (Second Month Continuous)
Last week I wrote how 'Since mid Jan/early Feb we've formed a fairly steep Bullish Andrews Pitchfork and we've mainly been using the underside of the Middle Tine as the Bullish angle-of attack of the market. However, today we've gone over it..'. That was the high-water mark for this move...that AP is now gone. The longer term Upper Tine of the Aug 2017—Jan 2018 Andrews Pitchfork (currently 1072) is broken but still has enough to push prices back down. We're now within this shallower Upper Tine and Middle Tine (currently 1022). Below we've also the 50% Fib of the 2016– 2017 move nearby at 1025 and unless we turn up quickly and break the Upper Tine once a ain then we ma well be headin down to for it.
Chicago Soybean Meal (Second Month Continuous)
Last week I wrote how all the main upside resistances had been taken out apart from the '...Old Gap at 398-402...'. We duly filled the Gap last Friday...and then fell. Right through the Middle and Lower Tines of the Jan—Feb Andrews Pitchfork that's been running the Bullish angle-of-attack of the market...that's redundant now. We've now a significant overhang of supply that may try to push prices further down. The feature that stands out over all are the two 50% Fibs of the older 2016-2017 move at 357.2 and the recent 2018 move at 357.1. You couldn't put a piece of paper in between them! Their coincidence seems like an attractor...we may see a market move to those levels. Only fresh highs would negate such a thing.
Chicago Soybean Oil (Second Month Continuous)
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I wrote last time how '...it's hard...' recovering back up after reaching an upside target. I gave 'The reason is the proximity of the 2018 Downtrend (currently 32.88), though a two pointer, it caps the rallies. Further up, we've the combi of Long MA (currently 33.41) and Medium MA (currently 33.39).'. All these are valid as all I've done is update the numbers. The market's decided to revisit the 31.60 Feb Double Bottom area. However, there's more! Looking closely at recent action, I noted the possible Double Top we've formed AFTER reaching the DB Target. The 31.00 area would be the Target for a DT —the low back in Jun 2017. Looking closely at the Daily Chart you may see a nice market symmetry if we do go there.
Paris Rapeseed (Second Month Continuous)
I noted over the last couple of weeks two points '1) the 2005-to-date Uptrend (currently 342.00) held up the prior fall/. This looks very valid as we've neared the Uptrend at 342.00 seemingly backing back up. Then '2) the market has formed a Complex Reverse WS Pattern, a Pattern with a single Head and multiple Shoulders. Neckline currently 351.25. This week we've started to fulfil the first part of the Reverse H+S in the 361.50 area.'. Yes we tried...but failed. We made the Second Shoulder but then fell down through the Neckline (currently 351.00). '2)' doesn't look good at this time. This brings the 2017-to-date Bearish Halfway Hesitation back on and its Target 327. Let's see how it deals with the Uptrend/341.50 2018 low.
Winnipeg Canola (Second Month Continuous)
I asked last time to watch this market closely as we were about to make consecutive closes over the key 2018-to-date Downtrend (currently 522.30). Well, we did...a Bullish sign! We'd consecutive closes over the Nov 2016-to-date Downtrend (currently 525.40)...more Bull. However, we then spiked with a Pipe Top below the last major resist, the May 2016-to-date Downtrend (currently 532.00) and we've consecutively closed below both Downtrends...again. We oughtn't to recover, at least immediately because at time of writing, we're on for a Weekly Key Reversal Down at the top. We need to close below 516.30...unlikely but maybe. Next supports are the recent Upper Channel (currently 516.60), the Medium MA (currently 509.80) and the Long MA (currently 504.80).
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