Weekly Technicals on North American, European Oilseeds
Eddie Tofpik | Mar 25, 2018 11:32
Chicago Soybeans (Second Month Continuous)
Two weeks ago I wrote 'Below we've also the 50% Fib of the 2016-2017 move nearby at 1025 and unless we turn up quickly and break the Upper Tine (currently 1079) once again then we may well be heading down to for it.'. We certainly tried last week but failed on Monday with a Gapped Bearish Long Black Marubozo. The back up midweek met an Indecisive Doji Cross (Rickshaw Man) and more Bearish pressure till today with our lowest open this week and a new low...through 1025 level. Key support's the Middle Tine of the Aug 2017—Jan 2018 Andrews Pitchfork (currently 1029), 1025, the 2018 50% Fib at 1013, Medium and Long MAs (currently 1004 and 985). We may be on for a very large Reverse H+S...caution!
Chicago Soybean Meal (Second Month Continuous)
Last week I wrote '...thought we'd continue the move lower last week./The feature that stands out over all are the two 50% Fibs of the older 2016-2017 move at 357.2 and the recent 2018 move at 357.1. You couldn't put a piece of paper in between them! Their coincidence seems like an attractor... we may see a market move to those levels. Only fresh highs would negate such a thing.'. Well...we didn't try fresh highs but we haven't headed down yet to the 357.2/357.1 'attractor'l . What a difference a week makes! We've tried lower and moved to the 'attractor'. Today's interesting because 1) we're still fiddling with the broken Uptrend (currently 371.2) an 2) we may've a Key Reversal tonight (close over 370.4/under 366.8).
Chicago Soybean Oil (Second Month Continuous)
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Last week I'd hoped for '...a nice market symmetry if we do go there...The 31.00 area would be the Target for a DT—the low back in Jun 2017.'. DT stands for Double Top. However, we'd continued higher and punched through the Upper Tine of the recent Schiff Pitchfork (since removed) that had been acting as resistance. Then midweek we jumped up and whacked into the 2018 Downtrend (currently 32.60)...it looked as if the 31.00 idea was over...but...we halted over two days at the Downtrend and formed a Pipe Top. Today we've had the lowest high for almost two weeks and looks as if 31.00 is back on. Just in case...watch the Downtrend and the Medium & Long MAs (currently 33.16 and 33.43) just in case.
Paris Rapeseed (Second Month Continuous)
I'd written many times about how `...the 2005-to-date Uptrend (currently 342.50) held up the prior fall.' and 'This looks very valid as we've neared the Uptrend at 342.00 seemingly backing back up.' and finally 'This brings the 2017-to-date Bearish Halfway Hesitation back on and its Target 327. Let's see how it deals with the Uptrend/341.50 2018 low.'. Well, regarding the 2018 low, today we'd made a new low...then we'd a Bullish Northern Doji Cross...weird but acceptable when strong Bearish market meets strong LT support. We'd need at least two consecutive closes under the Uptrend to try for 327.00. Consecutive closes over the very recent 50% Fib at 348.50 would slow us whilst closes over 356.50 would go Neutral.
Winnipeg CanoIa (Second Month Continuous)
My last commentary gave the ranges the proximity of the Medium MA (currently 510.90) and the 2018 Uptrend (currently 512.40) rallied prices up...till we once again approached the major resistance of the May 2016-to -date Downtrend (currently 531.70). These are the ranges we're caught within and whichever is broken ought to decide the next way...caution!' . There is so little to add at this time other than we've now a Double Top as well as the original Pipe Top. We've a Target for such a move down at about 495. However, that'll be a big ask as we'd have to punch down through all the MAs...especially as ALL are currently turned up. Caution... but watch out for consecutive closes should we drop out or rise over the previously mentioned ranges. PS...Gap's been filled!
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