Weekly Technicals North American, European Oilseeds
Eddie Tofpik | Mar 04, 2018 10:37
Chicago Soybeans (Second Month Continuous)
Further follow on to the early Feb Key Reversal Up, this time up to the Upper Tine of the Aug 2017—Jan 2018 Andrews Pitchfork (currently 1069) where we closed yesterday. Today we’ve taken that out and tried higher... not quite as high as the 2017 high at 1088 but that’ll be the next significant resistance. Since mid Jan/early Feb we’ve formed a fairly steep Bullish Andrews Pitchfork and we’ve mainly been using the underside of the Middle Tine (currently 1074) as the Bullish angle-of attack of the market. However, today we’ve gone over it and we’re now using it as support. The Upper Tine resistance is some way ahead (currently 1103).
Chicago Soybean Meal (Second Month Continuous)
Last week we had overhead resistance from the 2014-to-date AND 2012-to -date Downtrends (currently 362.3 & 379.3 respectively) and I noted at the time ‘...with a week till the end of Feb it’d suit the Bulls to see a close over the Downtrend. If we do, then resistance at 395, an old Gap at 398—402 then 411 plus a possible huge multi year Reverse H+S.’. Well...all’ve been taken out except for the Old Gap. Apart from that, they’re all now support. I’ve noticed over mid Jan to early Feb we’ve formed a fairly steep Bullish Andrews Pitchfork with the Middle Tine (currently 392.5) runs the Bullish angle-of-attack of market. The Upper Tine (currently 412.9) forms resistance whilst the Lower Tine (currently 372.2) is the support.
Chicago Soybean Oil (Second Month Continuous)
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Last week I set out the ‘story’ and noted ‘...and 2) we formed a small Double Bottom with a Target in the 32.80 area...we’re currently going there. There’s a 2a)...we’ve a possible Weekly Key Reversal Up if we close today over 32.15...it is a ‘just’ because we have a matching low.’. Well, we reached the Target late Friday and then...fell back down...we’d done enough. We’ve spent most of the latter part of this week recovering but it’s hard. The reason is the proximity of the 2018 Downtrend (currently 33.02), though a two pointer, it caps the rallies. Further up, we’ve the combi of Long MA (currently 33.42) & Medium MA (currently 33.46)
Paris Rapeseed (Second Month Continuous)
A precis from last time was 1) the 2005-to-date Uptrend (currently 341.75) held up the prior fall...and 2) the market has formed a Complex Reverse H+S Pattern, a Pattern with a single Head and multiple Shoulders. Neckline currently 351.25. This week we’ve started to fulfil the first part of the Reverse H+S in the 361.50 area. We’ve rallied and fallen as part of the anticipated Pullback after breaking up through the Neckline, usually the Pullback size is about the size of the second Shoulder. So maximum fall for this to work would be to the combination of the Neckline and Feb-to-date Uptrend (currently 350.50). Then look for a move back up and the market to try to finally fulfil the Reverse H+S Target.
Winnipeg Canola (Second Month Continuous)
Two weeks ago I wrote how ‘Looking on Daily, Weekly and even Monthly Charts and it’s a tale of Sine Waves still moving out from the 2008 shock. We’re in a Sideways Triangle/Coil and it’s fractal as you’ll see the same Sideways action rippling out on Weekly & Monthly Charts. Recently we’re within the 2008-to-date Downtrend (currently 523.00) & Jun 2017-to-date Uptrend (currently 489.30).’. I’ve only updated the trend levels. This week we’ve broken up over the 2008-to-date Downtrend...we’re waiting for consecutive closes over to make sure this break isn’t false. Watch this closely! Resistance above is best at the May 2016-to-date Downtrend (currently 532.00) whilst support is best in congestion band 522.00—515.00.
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