Technicals On Metals: Aluminium, Copper, Nickel, Tin, Zinc
Eddie Tofpik | Apr 11, 2018 06:29
I wrote last time how we'd moved below the Long MA (currently 6739) but 'I've concern recent action may be a Spike Bottom. Watch for closes over Dec 2017—Feb 2018 Andrews Pitchfork Middle Tine.'. The concern was true and we moved over the Middle Tine (currently 6626) and over the Long MA i l l reaching the Upper Tine (currently 6907) today. We halted at this first resistance, coincident with the recent 50% Fib at 6909 but carried on to the nearby key Medium MA (currently 6948) resist. Overcoming both would change the mildly Bearish outlook...otherwise look lower.
h3 LME Aluminium (3 Month Continuous)/h3First sign something's up was last Thursday's Key Reversal Up off the lows. Then the rapid rises through the Long MA (currently 2100), key 50% Fib 2011—2016 at 2118 and big combination at 2133 (look at the Chartbook). All are now resistance. Today we're over the 61.8% Fib at 2170 so next logical resistance could be the Dec 2017-to-date Downtrend (currently 2218) combining later this week with the Middle Tine of the 2009—2015 Schiff Pitchfork...interesting time & price combo. Downside, closes below the Medium MA goes Neutral. Under the Long MA...Bearish.
h3 LME Nickel (3 Month Continuous)/h3The Bearish H+S Top looked good last time and we duly went below the Neckline (currently 13495). It looked like we might try lower but the Medium MA (currently 12785) and the recent 50% Fib at 12580 were enough to hold it after seemingly numerous attempts lower...all failed. Then today we've not only gone over the Neckline but also over the Downtrend formed from the Head and 2nd Shoulder (currently 13690). Staying above the Medium MA was always Bullish. If we've closes over the Downtrend it may mean we try up to resistance band 14420—14910.
h3 LME Zinc (3 Month Continuous)/h3
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Unless we had consecutive closes above the Medium MA (currently 3322) or under the Long MA (currently 3181) we've as I wrote last time '...ping pong between MAs.'. That's what's happened. We're caught between these two...but that's not the only thing. The Medium MA resistance is backed up by the 50% Fib of the recent move at 3323 whilst the Long MA support has a further band of congestion roughly 3120—3240 from the latter part of 2017. We're not moving much either way but the support looks more extensive...unless we have that HH down to 2925 area.
h3 LME Lead (3 Month Continuous)/h3Many times I've written we need consecuive closes below the tested but not consecutively broken 50% Fib of the Dec 2016—Feb 2018 move at 2321...We'd need consecuive closes or else the Long MA (currently 2451) may call again.' but on any rise '...the Bearish overhand is large...'. We've tested both sides and seem to be forming either a base or else (possibly more likely) a Bearish Halfway Hesitation Pattern. It's s i l l too early to say which. Watch for consecuive closes below the 50% Fib or over the Long MA. Meanwhile, the 2018 Downtrend nears (currently 2476).
h3 LME Tin (3 Month Continuous)/h3The market's been recently caught between the Middle Tine of the Jun — Dec 2017 Bullish Andrews Pitchfork (currently 21170) and recent Uptrend (currently 20895) with further support from the Medium MA (currently 20575) and even the Long MA (currently 20415). The AP being Bullish, it's therefore no surprise to see tries over it. However, we've a load of supply higher, principally between 21550—21600 plus the 2018 Downtrend (currently 21510). Therefore, you may see further attempts higher but there's a lot all the way up to 22,000 that may make it destined to fail.
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