Weekly Metals: Aluminium, Copper, Nickel, Zinc
Eddie Tofpik | Mar 28, 2018 06:36
LME Copper (3 Month Continuous)
I wrote last week 'We're now testing down to some significant support, notably the 2016-to-date Uptrend and the Long MA (currently 6699). These, along with the 2018 low at 6733 will be key in supporting the market or else key in its decline.'. The Uptrend and others are gone and yesterday we'd the second close below the Long MA...all now resistance. I've concern recent action may be a Spike Bottom. Watch for closes over Dec 2017—Feb 2018 Andrews Pitchfork Middle Tine (currently 6704). Below, support's at 6508, 6498, 6440 and Lower AP Tine (currently 6423).
LME Aluminium (3 Month Continuous)
This past week we've managed to clearly punch through 'The key supports are the Jun 2017-to-date Uptrend and the nearer Long MA (currently 2093).' The market also seems to look at '...the Dec 2017 low at 1998.50 may beckon...'. However, we've some support in the way, notably the Lower Tine of the recent Schiff Pitchfork (currently 2030) which has been running the Bear move...you'd not wish to bite the hand that feeds by taking too much too soon. Additionally, we've congestion in the 2017 area. Only closes over the 50% Fibs at 2118 and 2144 would negate.
LME Nickel (3 Month Continuous)
Pointed out last week 'We've, a possible H+S Top formed over late Jan-todate. We're in the 2nd Shoulder and the Neckline's (currently 13345). On a break, the suitable Target for a H+S move would be about 3600 down. Watch!'. The break came last Thursday and we've had two closes lower. The Target for such a move would ideally be in the 12000 area...just as the Long MA (currently 11700) slides up there. We've backed up today because we've good support from the Medium MA (currently 12700) and the 50% Fib at 12575. Topside has resistance from 13345—13851.
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LME Zinc (3 Month Continuous)
Recent action's been the tale of Key Reversals. First was a KR Down last Thursday (just) leading us to try the Long MA support (currently 3157). We duly did yesterday...and the didn't like it as we made a huge KR Up. Today we've followed on with a move to the next real resistance - the Medium MA (currently 3317) AND recent 50% Fib at 3323. KRs Up, especially near the Medium MA are suspect here—look at the 9th of Mar. We may revert back to the Long MA unless we've closes over 3323 soon. Otherwise...ping pong between MAs. 3110 is still the Double Top Target.
LME Lead (3 Month Continuous)
Over the last few weeks I've written we need consecutive closes below the tested but not consecutively broken 50% Fib of the Dec 2016—Feb 2018 move at 2321...We'd need consecutive closes or else the Long MA (currently 2444J may call again.' but on any rise '...the Bearish overhand is large...'. We've tested both up and down and now seem to be forming a Bullish basing action (multiple bottoms) or else (possibly more likely) a Bearish Halfway Hesitation Pattern. It's still too early to say which way. Watch for consecutive closes below the 50% Fib or above the Long MA.
LME Tin (3 Month Continuous)
The market's caught between the Middle Tine resistance of the Jun—Dec 2017 Andrews Pitchfork (currently 21075) and support just above the combination of Medium MA (currently 20445), Long MA (currently 20350) and recent 50% Fib (20340). We've not been able to attempt the Target for the recent Bearish Sideways Triangle Pattern in the 20,300 area and despite the contrary best efforts of the seemingly failed Key Reversal Up last Wednesday to break us out...unless we have consecutive closes outside these previously mentioned ranges... we're destined to stay here.
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