Weekly Grains, Starches Technicals: Wheat, Corn
Eddie Tofpik | Apr 02, 2018 06:27
Chicago Wheat (Second Month Continuous)
We may be on the cusp of a move down! Last Friday was a great Key Reversal Up after trying the Long MA (currently 463.25) and how strong it was. Yet the limited rise Monday and Bearish fail Tuesday led to Wednesday's close just below the Dec 2017-to-date Uptrend (currently 464.25) AND the Long MA. A first close underneath both.
Today, we've tested down but not fully exploited it...yet! Caution...two closes below may see a Bear Flag to the 435 area and a possible stop at the Medium MA (currently 454.25). Topside's limited at the Sep 2017 482.25 high and 492.50 50% Fib.
Chicago Corn (Second Month Continuous)
I'm in a conundrum! I see a Diamond Pattern formed over the last two weeks (see the Chartbook) and I'm fairly certain the move will be about 11 Cents all told. However, I'm uncertain of the direction. Typically, a Diamond is a Reversal Pattern and we might see a move up to the 394 level. Yet we're at the top of a good technical Bullish move (Double Bottom- Adam & Eve). Alternatively, heading down as a continuation would run into a LOAD of support. 50% Fibs at 375 and 372, Long and Medium MAs (currently 368 and 366). On balance...maybe test of the Long MA.
Kansas City Wheat (Second Month Continuous)
I wrote last time:
We can see the whole late Feb-to-date action as a possible Bull Flag and possibly Target the 487 area. Consecutive closes below the Broken Downtrend...and it'll be off.
Two days later and we'd those sought closes below the Broken Downtrend (currently 514.75). You'll see it still on the Chartbook. I'll take it off next time. So where now? Well after the fall started we only halted just above the 38.2% Fib of the Jul—Sep 2017 move at 474.25. This still acts as support but we've a possible (Bearish?) opportunity with a Weekly Key Reversal (Down?). Watch this!
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Minneapolis Wheat (Second Month Continuous)
Some time ago, I wrote here:
The theme coming through is any Bullishness is quickly snuffed out. Since Nov 2017 we've had lower major highs, usually a Bearish sign' Look to see if we test the 610 and/or the 605 if this carries on.
That move down's just happened and the it may not have ended. The rally at the start of the week was snuffed out just short of the recent 50% Fib at 613.50 and we've fallen since. We've some mild support at 590 but we've little (some at 578...) till we hit 574. Then there's support congestion. Topside...613.50 still rules then the Medium MA (currently 623).
Paris Milling Wheat (Second Month Continuous)
Last time I wrote about the future:
We'll probably fill the Gap (169.00) in the next day or so...but what next? If we carry lower then the Long MA (currently 167.00) may be next.
This is what's happened and we're currently testing this very support. We've yet to close under it but if we do have consecutive closes under then the 50% Fibs at 164.75 and 164.50 may be under threat. If they go then next we've the combination of Medium MA (currently 163.25) and 2018 Uptrend (currently 163.50). If not, then we've the upside Gap 168.50—168.75 and maybe the Mar high.
European Processing Potatoes (Second Month Continuous)
I wrote of the resistance ahead as:
We've hit some resistance at 7.600 ahead of the big stuff at 8.000 but that's also been helpful for a try up.
We punched up through that last Thursday by combining a close over 8.000 with a close over the Long MA (currently 7.900). Today we've had our second consecutive close over and we must really start 'Looking at recent action as a type of Halfway Hesitation then we may see a try to 9.700 area.'. Only consecutive closes below the Medium MA (currently 6.600) and the recent 50% Fib at 6.400 would negate such an opportunity.
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