Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week Of 28 June 2021
IHS Markit | Jun 27, 2021 06:14
As usual, the turn of the month promises to be a busy week for economic data releases and markets alike.
Worldwide manufacturing PMIs will be in the spotlight following the release of the flash PMIs. Recent PMI data have highlighted the 'vaccine dividend' driving strong growth in being accompanied by rising inflation amid supply shortages, so we will be keen to see if new supply chain delays due to further virus waves might further darken the inflation outlook.
Meanwhile, with heightened sensitivity towards the Fed since the June FOMC meeting, we will get a look at the US employment picture via the June jobs report. While the Fed had emphasized the transitory nature of inflation, Fed chair Jerome Powell's acknowledgement of the risk that inflation may be higher than earlier expected is congruent with the signals from PMI data. That said, the longer-term inflation picture will to a large extent be determined by the amount of labour market slack and wages growth.
Flash eurozone inflation figures will also be released ahead of the Japan Q2 Tankan survey and an update on the UK's first quarter GDP. Also watch out for US factory orders, eurozone unemployment and various activity indicators out of Japan, including retail sales and industrial production.
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