Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week Of 18 October 2021
IHS Markit | Oct 15, 2021 07:11
Flash PMIs will offer early insights into economic conditions into the start of Q4 next week. The packed economic calendar also finds China's Q3 GDP update at the start of the week alongside industrial production and retail sales data. Meanwhile, the US reports industrial production while the UK September inflation report will be especially closely watched.
October flash PMI releases offer timely economic updates as supply constraints and the energy crisis dominate headlines. Manufacturers worldwide experienced near-record delays and increased price pressures in September , though there were some signs of production constraints easing in Asia. The October data will therefore be scrutinised for updates on whether the situation had further worsened. The key gauge amongst the manufacturing PMI sub-indices to offer clues on the supply situation will be the suppliers' delivery times index. In services, we'll be keen to watch out for signs that the fading Delta wave will help lift consumer activity in particular, notably in the US.
Meanwhile, in the UK, September inflation numbers look set to rise further according to elevated readings signalled by the IHS Markit/CIPS UK PMI data, but any worsening output trend alongside the price data could cause a policy rift at the Bank of England.
In APAC, Bank Indonesia meets to decide rates while China updates Loan Prime Rate figures. However, the attention is expected to be on China's Q3 GDP reading, which is expected to reflect a continued easing of growth momentum in the third quarter.
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