Uber Earnings Preview - Recap

Ken Odeluga | Aug 09, 2019 10:44

Uber releases hotly anticipated second quarter earnings shortly. Here’s a re-cap of what to look for

Our full preview for Uber’s second quarter earnings was published on Wednesday. Read it here .

Key Financial points to Watch

Key Q2 Metrics to Watch

Core platform gross bookings are forecast to rise to $15.53bn in Q2 vs. $14.52bn in Q1
Growth is forecast to fall to 32% from 34% in Q1
Q2 2018 and Q1 2018 growth was 48% and 56%

Other key points to watch

Uber may confirm that it is selling Uber Eats India
It may comment on Takeaway.com’s £5bn agreement to buy Just Eat (LON:JE)

Possible share price reaction

Shares remain below IPO price
The stock jumped as much as 7.5% on Thursday after Lyft’s better than expected earnings earlier this week
An upside surprise in Uber’s results could deliver a positive-shock to shares
Missing forecasts, or just meeting expectations could send the shares lower
Options pricing shows a high put/call ratio and skew . These point to bearish sentiment
19% of the stock is held by short sellers betting the price will decline

Chart thoughts

Uber is in an upswing from its post-IPO gap fill. There are decent technical signs of a change in sentiment
Downward velocity that followed a rejected attempt to approach 28th June’s primary cycle high has dissipated
The stock escaped a falling channel this week
A fresh cycle low was established at $38.20 on Wednesday; closely echoing several lows nearby
$39.24 may be significant support as it was the top price on Uber’s first post-IPO Monday, 13th May. It was also the bottom of the gap after Uber’s 10th May debut
The 8th July swing low of $42.75 established a floor for most of that month. It’s now resistance
Added significance (‘confluence’) comes from proximity to 61.8% of the 29th July-7th August
Since Uber has settled at resistance just ahead of earnings, current levels are a rough marker. They can define sentiment: Above here signals well-received figures; below would be negative

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If the stock escapes its 26th June bearish outside day range–even better
The bottom of that range—$42.36—adds support
Failure to break above current resistance will return Uber to a downward course
In that case, assuming no help from the 38.2% Fibonacci, expect another visit to $39.24; perhaps $38.32

Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) Inc. – 120 minutes [08/08/2019 19:52:03

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Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on our analysis and we do not represent or warrant that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, the author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does the author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions."

Original Post

Written By: Ken Odeluga

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