The Oil Is Still In Oversold Stance With Continued Economic Deceleration
Trade 24 | Jan 19, 2016 07:22
The data came today from China to highlight economic deceleration, as the Chinese Q4 GDP has grown by 1.6% quarterly, while the consensus was referring to 1.7%, after growth by 1.8% in the third quarter with yearly expansion by 6.8% as expected, after 6.9% in the third quarter.
Urban investment in China increased by 10%, while the market was waiting for increasing by 10.2% as the same as November.
The retail sales rose in China last December by 11.1% yearly vs. 11.3% expected, after 11.2% in November and also the industrial production in December rose by 5.9% y/y and the foreseen was 6%, after increasing by 6.2% in November.
The Asian bourses are trading in a mixed way, after absence of the US major stocks indexes in the first day of this week because of Martin Luther King Birthday holiday, while their future rates are referring to improving, after last Friday excessive selling.
It's important today to wait for the inflation data which will come from UK, Germany and EU generally, as key figures to the next steps of MPC and ECB which are watching tame inflation pressure with continued retreating of the energy prices.
Instrument in Focus: GBPUSD
The cable has been exposed to triggering more stops of buying orders with its retreating last Friday which led to breaking last Tuesday bottom 1.4350, before bringing down June 2010 supporting level at 1.4345 to maintain the relatively high falling pace which started following forming a top at 1.5238 on last Dec. 11, after forming a series of lower highs and also lower lows.
The cable resided for trading now near 1.4250, after finding hardly supporting level at 1.4235 to tackle its slide.
The cable daily RSI is into its oversold area below 30 reading now 18.569 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in deep place into its oversold area below 20 reading only 2.964 and also its signal line which is reading now 7.630 showing strong need for correcting to fix this oversold stance.
The cable daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is in its day number 24 of continued being above the trading rate reading today 1.4425.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.4913, Daily SMA100 @ 1.5118 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.5303
S&R:
S1: 1.4235
S2: 1.4228
S3: 1.4110
R1: 1.4321
R2: 1.4474
R3: 1.4643
GBPUSD Daily Chart:
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Commodities: Brent Mar. 16
After the beginning of implying the Iranian nuclear pact, Brent Mar. 16 has been exposed to increasing downside momentum in the beginning of this week which opened on a downside gap at $28.23, before having extension to $27.98.
The oil prices have been already under pressure because of continued worries about the demand solidarity because of the economic slowdown signs from china and the weaker than expected manufacturing performance in US last month with US crude inventories hovering above 480m barrels currently.
Brent Mar. 16 capitalization on the Iranian Saudi tension in the beginning day of this year was to form merely a peak at $38.97 just above its daily SMA20, before retreating acceleration led its daily RSI to have continued existence into its oversold area below 30 reading now 22.884 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in into its oversold area below 20 reading 15.997 and also its signal line which is reading now 15.287, despite the rebounding for trading near $29 currently.
Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $34.22, Daily SMA50 @ $39.41, Daily SMA100 @ $44.28 and Daily SMA200 @ $51.83
S&R:
S1: $27.98
S2: $27.32
S3: $25.51
R1: $31.18
R2: $32.37
R3: $34.70
Brent Mar. 16 Daily chart:
Hot instrument: DAX-MAR16
DAX30-MAR16 has formed another lower high at 10164 last Thursday below its Daily SMA50, after having lower high below its Daily SMA200 at 10881.25 following forming a top at 11432.25 on last Nov. 30.
DAX-Mar16 daily RSI is referring now to existence barely in the neutral area hovering above its oversold area below 30 reading 33.001 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having also its main line barely in the neutral area above the oversold area below 20 reading now 22.196 and also its signal line could come out from the oversold reading now 29.173.
Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 10629.63, Daily SMA100 @ 10389.56 and Daily SMA200 @ 10900.07
S&R:
S1: 9299.75
S2: 9229
S3: 9126
R1: 10164
R2: 10881.75
R3: 11432.25
DAX-MAR16Daily chart:
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