Sugar: Trend Down
Eddie Tofpik | Aug 03, 2018 08:01
We started last month with a huge Key Reversal Down on the Daily Chart. This month we start by breaking down through the lows formed earlier this year at 10.69 and testing some of the lows from a decade ago back in 2008.
At the time of writing last time we needed closes over 11.83 to counteract the Bearishness...this did not happen! Mid Jul we did have a Key Reversal Up on the Daily Chart as we'd made our first attempt at the 10.69 level. However, this was basically ignored. More of concern was a Bullish Engulfing Pattern later that same week which did start a small pullback up. Yet again this failed at the first real test which was the previous high on the failed KR Up.
Since then we've fallen away though the Apr low and making new lows on support based around Oct 2008. What's next? Well, we're now entering an area of congestion 10.50 - 10.39 which may well slow the market...it wouldn't be surprising. However, once that is dealt with we have little till the 2015 low at 10.10.
This doesn't look to be that strong and ought to overcome this. Then there may well be clear water till the Middle Tine (currently 9.62) of the 2018 Andrews Pitchfork...we fall about 0.04 per day as a guide. The 2008 low at 9.44 is next and you may regard this as part of another congestion band which stretches from 9.44 - 8.89 but ideally from 9.19 - 8.89. Next? Well.then it's the oft mentioned 8.35 initial target for the Long Term Bear Flag at Target 'X' . How do you stop such a move? You'd need to overcome these in order to just go into Neutral... 1) the Upper Tine of the 2018 Andrews Pitchfork (currently 11.28). 2) The very recent 50% Fib at 11.68...this will actually decrease in price as the market falls so that it may become 1) at some point. 3) The Medium MA (currently 11.80). This one is also falling...currently by about 0.02 per day and may overtake on the downside Point 1) soon. To move to Bullish you'd need to at least overcome the Long MA (currently 12.98). Last time I moved the bullet point into fully Bearish. At this time I see no need to change that point...it stays the same.
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