No Trend In Wheat
Eddie Tofpik | Apr 06, 2015 09:53
Last month I wrote of Wheat's crossover, a finessed version on the 16th – 17th Mar so that you could look out as ‘It would be reasonable to expect increased volatility and possible direction change…’….and that is what happened! A big try lower which failed & a rally which has seen the move up peak at a Bearish Doji Cross once prices touched the then Long MA resistance (currently 537).
Prior to this we’d seen prices move lower at the start of the month only to reverse back up with a great Bullish Harami AND a Bullish Opening White Marubozo on the 6th of Mar! Nevertheless, once prices touched the Long MA resistance on the 23rd we came off though not down as far as the previous move lower and we’ve had prices move upwards in fits & starts since – so much so that we nearly had a Weekly Close over the Long MA – very ‘close’ but not yet I’m afraid!
Over the Long MA we have the Medium MA resistance (currently 547 which is coincident with the recent 38.2% Fib). Above that we have little until a band 565 – 572! Underneath, there is support nearby at 535 and then at 532, 520, 510 & 498! A quick look at the Monthly Chart confirms recent events – Indecisive Spinning Top followed by another Indecisive Spinning Top though I would keep an eye out for recent actions as this rally may have some legs upon it!
One final word about the possible Bow Tie Formation you can see on the Daly Chart above – the success rate is somewhere between 66% - 75% (apocryphally)! If it is a Bearish Bow Tie then it ought at the latest to kick in between the 26th of Mar & the 2nd Apr 2015! So far we’ve had a bit of a bearish day on the 26th but since then nothing – nevertheless caution!
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