Negative Surprises
Jeroen Blokland | Nov 19, 2019 10:21
The Citi US Economic Surprise Index has dropped below zero, meaning negative surprises outweigh positive macro-economic surprises. Several nowcast surveys are now predicting very little US GDP growth for this quarter.
For example, the Atlanta Fed GDP now forecast has declined to just 0.3%. Hence it is not unthinkable that the US economy is stalling in the final quarter of this year, making investors look to the Federal Reserve for more easing. At this point, however, the odds of that easing happening seem low. And while the pace of GDP growth is expected to pick up next year, there is a real risk that this will take just a bit longer than equity investors in particular can handle.
Get The App
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.