Market Crash? Confirmations on S&P 500 Vs S&P 600 Small Cap
David Pascucci | Jan 08, 2016 13:18
The Markets are going to crash this year and we have seen some reasons to declare it. Over the technical motivations, there are some fundamentals on this crash and indieforex checked one of them. Probably, this is one of the most important comparison, maybe an evidence of the fact that 2016 will be a Bearish-oriented year.
Get to the point. Look at the Chart of Bloomberg
S&P500: Orange
S&P 600 Small Cap: Blue
During the last 3 years, S&P 600 overperformed the S&P 500 but, in 2015, the S&P 600 goes under S&P500. What does it mean?
The Small Cap Index grows more than the Large Cap Index during Bull Markets thanks to the greater amount of revenues in percentage of the capitalization, this is normal. When this trend has a reversal, the small cap index becomes more sensitive about market changes, as we can see now on S&P600 Small Cap. Substantially, there's no more growth and probably the Bull Market is over.
Volatilty + Small Caps Underpeform + Asset Bubble on Fixed Income + China Decline
Not a Good Year for Markets all around the world. If we look at the volatilty on the S&P 500, espcially on the monthly chart, we can see that the last 6 monthly candles on 2015 are larger than the last 3 years candles on the same timeframe. What does it mean? Volatility means uncertainty, this situation becomes fear and then panic.
World tensions about the China Crisis, Isis, Korea's Cold War and some others, could be part of excuses that could lead the markets down in the next months of 2016.
Also, the Asset Bubble on Fixed Income Markets could amplify the bear market of 2016. Now, we can probably confirm that the bull market is over, but a massive bearish trend is going to affect the markets.
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