Gold Surges As Israel Prepares Possible Gaza Invasion
Gold Core | Jul 10, 2014 15:07
- Today’s AM fix was USD 1,343.25, EUR 985.22 and GBP 784.61 per ounce.
- Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,322.50, EUR 971.71 and GBP 773.08 per ounce.
- Gold climbed $8 or 0.61% yesterday to $1,327.70/oz and silver rose $0.07 or 0.33% to $21.11/oz.
- Silver is outperforming again today. It is up 2% to its highest since mid-March at $21.54/oz. It's currently on track for a sixth consecutive week of gains, a feat it hasn't pulled off since early 2011, according to Reuters.
Gold surged above strong resistance at $1,334/oz this morning and is looking better and better from a technical perspective. There was strong chart resistance at $1,334/oz as this was the 61.8% retracement of the March to June retreat. Traders bought gold once we breached that level and there was an acceleration in gold’s move higher.
Gold has now broken convincingly above the key 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages (see chart). Gold futures trading volume this morning in London was 62% above the average for the past 100 days, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Gold climbed to the highest in more than three months as Middle East tension led to renewed safe haven demand and after the dollar weakened following the U.S. Federal Reserve minutes.
Israel has mobilized 20,000 soldiers for a possible ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, as militants there extended their rocket barrage and the Palestinian death toll increased.
The technicals and fundamentals are increasingly aligned and this sets the stage for a rally to test resistance at $1,400/oz. Geopolitical risk from the Middle East, both Iraq, Iran and Israel, continues to be under appreciated. The price rise could be a delayed reaction to deterioration of the situation in Israel.
The Nikkei 225 dipped late in trading in Asia and stock indices are in the red in Europe and this risk off sentiment could be another contributory factor to gold's gains today.
European stocks fell for a fifth day as shares of lenders declined to their lowest level this year. U.S. index futures also slid.
Banco Espirito Santo (LISBON:BES) tumbled 16%, dragging the Portuguese benchmark PSI 20 Index down for its biggest seven-day drop since August 2011.
Palladium reached a new 13 year high after the longest run of gains since 2000.
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As ever, it is impossible to pinpoint singular financial and economic breaking news or developments and point to them as the factor driving prices in the short term but it seems likely that the BES bond sell off and bond rout in Portugal may be creating jitters in European and wider markets.
There have been many bullish developments in the precious metal markets in recent weeks which have failed to ignite prices however the fundamentals appear to be re exerting themselves.
Gold is 11% higher this year as the Fed said it would continue ultra loose monetary policies and keep interest rates low for a “considerable time,” amid growing conflict in the Middle East and tension between Russia, China and the U.S. and western powers.
The Fed’s June meeting minutes released yesterday showed some officials expressed concern investors may be complacent about the economic outlook. Something we have been warning of in recent weeks.
h3 Silver Fix - Thomson Reuters and CME To Be ‘Crowned’ New Fixers/h3CME Group Inc. and Thomson Reuters Corp are expected to be ‘crowned’ the new operators of the London Silver fix this week, a person with knowledge of the matter told the Wall Street Journal overnight.
An announcement is expected Thursday or Friday to mark the end of a nearly-two-month-long hunt for a replacement to the benchmark, despite an 11th-hour attempt to muscle in on the action by the London Metal Exchange and Autilla Inc., a brokerage technology provider.
The results of a survey of members of the silver industry and of an independent consultation found broad support for the CME/Thomson Reuters proposal, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. Neither CME Group nor Thomson Reuters would comment.
CME/Thomson Reuters will have about a month to get their electronic system ready before the existing fix—a daily chat among a small group of banks—is set for a final time Aug. 14. The fix, a venerable 117-year-old City of London institution, provides a benchmark for mining companies to settle sales contracts and, more recently, to price such derivatives as exchange-traded funds, totalling billions of dollars each year.
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