Gold Monthly: Fed Meeting Galvanises Gold to a New High
WisdomTree | Mar 28, 2024 12:19
Gold bullion reached a new intraday high of US$2,220/oz at 22.15 UK time on 20 March 2024, just after the Federal Reserve (Fed) Open Market Committee Meeting1. The Fed reaffirmed their expectations of three 25 basis point rate cuts this year, despite increasing their economic growth projections and marginally increasing their core inflation forecast. Bond yields also pulled back from 4.32% (just before the Fed announcement) to 4.27% at the end of the day. The US Dollar basket depreciated from 104.1 to 103.3 over the same time frame. All of these factors were positive for gold. If the Fed is making a policy error by sticking to the three-cut plan, despite a rosier economy, gold should also be a beneficiary as a hedge against adverse outcomes.
h2 Investor sentiment towards gold healing, fuelling gold gains/h2The prior all-time high, reached on 8 March 2024, of US$2,195/oz, seemed to have been driven by a sharp rise in speculative long positioning in gold futures markets. Although, in absolute terms, the longs are still lower than they were back in January 2024, it's clear that there has been a notable reversal in institutional investors’ sentiment towards gold, at least in the futures market.
We have not yet seen a notable pickup in global exchange-traded products (ETP) flows into gold. However, according to the World Gold Council, there have been three consecutive months of inflows into Chinese ETPs, taking total assets under management in such funds to a record high of RMB31bn at the end of February 2024. The increase in speculative length in the futures market and China’s ETP demand could inspire greater global institutional investor demand. With bonds no longer looking as cheap as they were in H2 2023, gold may be back on the radar for investors looking for defensive hedges.
h2 Gold remains highly sensitive to rate cut probabilities…/h2Between 8 March and 20 March, gold paired back a little as market conviction in the June rate cuts wavered. A stronger-than-expected consumer and producer inflation reading for February had driven the market to reassess whether the Fed will have the support to loosen policy. The probability of a June 2024 rate cut fell to 61% on 19 March, the lowest level since November 2023.
Get The App
US Dollar depreciation against the Euro in February and early March had certainly helped gold, but it does not explain the extent of its early March gains. Up until the Fed meeting on 20 March greater market conviction that the European Central Bank will cut rates in June, compared to the Fed, had driven US Dollar appreciation – but that has reversed course once again.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced the purchase of 12 tonnes of gold in February, marking 16 consecutive months of buying, taking its total holdings to over 2,257 tonnes. Over this 16-month period, China has emerged as the largest central bank gold purchaser (amounting to 309 tonnes). Yet at around 4.3% of total foreign exchange reserves, China has relatively less gold than the US (69.7%), Germany (69.0%), France (66.8%) or Russia (26.2%). If China’s goal is to diversify its FX assets away from G7 currencies, it could keep buying this volume of gold for a considerable length of time and still not hit ratios comparable to the other major central banks.
h2 Chinese retail buying displays strength/h2In addition to the central bank and ETP gold demand mentioned earlier, retail demand for gold in China was especially strong in the opening months of the year. The Lunar New Year period provides a seasonal boost to gold buying in the country. This year was exceptional on account of the ‘Year of the Dragon’ being a very auspicious year and the associated marketing programme that went with it.
Gold premiums in China were elevated on the back of this high demand. However, these premiums have fallen back as the seasonal period is over and London prices have reached a new high.
A key question on many investors' minds is if gold is overvalued. Our model indicates that gold is, in fact, broadly at fair value and, if anything, marginally undervalued, with the model pointing to a 12.8% y-o-y gain vs an actual 12.0% gain (assuming a March CPI inflation number of 3% - which is not yet confirmed).
/h2
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.