FTSE: Either A Climb to 6650, Or A Drop to 6550
FTSEDayTrader Limited | Mar 28, 2014 07:10
Good morning. The big news out today will be the UK GDP at 09:30 and expected to be 2.7% so keep that in mind. at 12:30 we have the US personal income and spending results so a little bit of chop then as well. I mentioned yesterday that i expected the day to be flat to slightly bullish with support at 6555, the low was 6560 and we have seen a slow gain since, hitting an overnight high of 6606. I still think we will rise a bit further and am looking at 6610 and 6650. Overall it was a fairly quiet day yesterday, with a fairly tight range on the FTSE, certainly during trading hours anyway, despite a drop in US jobless claims.
h3 FTSE 100 Outlook/h3Today's pivot is 6585 so I expect any dip to find support there initially, before a rise to the 6610 area pre GDP figures. Depending on them I think we will either climb to 6650, or drop to 6550. It wouldn't surprise me if we are at 6610 at 09:29 today. Still, its Friday so bound to do something weird!
We have the top of the 20 day Raff at 6620 as well so the bulls will be hard pressed to break that area again, though they did do a good job of breaking out earlier this week. If they do manage to break out for a second time then it might stick this time and the 10 day Raff channel will be back in play, with resistance at 6680.
Basically pre GDP news I'm thinking a dip and rise, and then 60/40 favouring a dip after the news. I have put a pink arrow on the chart below as a plan B showing the rise to 6635/6650 as the reverse (well aware I'm hedging my bets here but the blue arrow is the preferred path).
This long at 1299 isn't looking such a good idea now with a dip yesterday to 1290 making me think that we are heading to the next support at 1275. As such I will probably cut this long soon, probably at break-even on this current rise as I write this. There is a pretty strong 30 min downward channel which makes me think its better to cut and run. To invalidate that drop potential to 1275 the price will need to exceed 1300. If it does that I can always hop back on a long.
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Looking at the daily chart there is a bit of support around this 1850 area, though the bulls will need to break 1856 to push to 1861 and 1866 as upside targets. Support is at 1848 where we have a weekly PRT line and the coral on 30min at 1847. I'm inclined to favour a climb today.
Looking at the daily chart it all looks pretty positive but there is resistance at 9470. I think an initial dip from that area, then a rise to the next resistance level 9535. Today's pivot is 9439 so there might be support there - that plan and route would match up with the FTSE dipping to its pivot then climbing as well. If it breaks below the pivot area (9429 to 9439) then it will probably drop down to the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 9290ish next week (don't think it will be so bearish as to drop 200 points today but you never know!).If that support holds then an upward cycle is in play and we will be shortly looking at the top of the Raffs.
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