FTSE Underpinned While Gold Flatly Refuses To Bounce
FTSEDayTrader Limited | Apr 02, 2014 07:29
Sometimes a trade goes exactly according to plan and the longs from 6612 yesterday worked ideally, all closing at 6657. The news flow has generally turned upbeat again so we should get some rises, probably up to the NFP news on Friday.
As mentioned earlier this week, the FTSE will be underpinned to attract S&S ISA money in, so unlikely to drop loads this week, before 5th April. We may well see a repeat of yesterday with the pivot at 6637 holding as support with a push towards 6700. The longer term Bianca channels (we dropped off the 10 day at 6557 yesterday) are now showing 6671 and 6682 as channel tops (20 and 10 day respectively).
h3 FTSE 100 Outlook/h3This bull run will continue for the moment, certainly we have a pretty decent 30 minute channel in play and the 10 day channels are pretty firmly up. The level likely to cause a bit of a stutter today is the 6671 area, being the 20 day Bianca channel top.
There is also the daily coral there, so a couple of hurdles the bulls will need to overcome to push it to 6700/6715, which is looking were this run might end. If the pivot were to break then a drop to 6620 is possible but likely to act as support. We have the bottom of the 30 minute channel there as well.
There is a flat refusal for gold to bounce though it has now nearly reached the 1275 level mentioned as support a while back. With the low forming at 1277 that might be the new base, otherwise further downside to 1250 is likely.
Bulls will need to get the price back above 1288 to get any sort of climb under-way. Looking at the 30 minute chart there is an attempt, as I write, to break out above the channel, which could be positive for prices.
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The S&P pushed on well yesterday and is now nearing a PRT resistance line on the daily chart at 1893, as well as also nearing the top of the 20 day Raff. Coupled with the fact that the FTSE is also nearing the top of the Bianca channel makes me think that the run will continue, but not that much higher - probably the 1905 top of the 10 day raff area.
For the S&P to go all pear shaped, the price would need to drop below 1842 where we have the lowest fib line on the daily as you can see below. For today it will likely encounter resistance at 1888 (were the price nearly is), drop back, then rise to 1893/95, which could tally with the FTSE hitting 6715.
Currently at resistance at 9646 the next level to watch for resistance is 9678 and 9707 then the PRT line at 9736. The daily pivot is 9603 today so I expect support there if we have an initial drop. This would also be a good level to go long from, targeting 9678.
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