FOMC Preview: Impact On USD
FX Daily | Dec 13, 2017 16:57
There is little to add to the current narrative which is that the FOMC is expected to hike rates by 25bps this evening, lifting the Fed funds rate to 1.5%. Beyond this, the dot plot is also unlikely to change for 2018, with 3 more hikes pencilled in, based on the growth trajectory which warrants the current pace of normalisation. That said, the market is still more inclined to look to another 50bps over the course of next year, but in her last announcement as Fed chair, Janet Yellen will maintain data dependency, which is bypassed for central bank speak at times. Consequently, the market will be hanging on her words given today's move is fully priced in, but should carry less weight given the retirement of her position in February next year.
We also expect to hear ongoing concerns over the pick up in inflation, though on that we get the latest readings for November ahead of tonight's communique, and based on PPI inputs, the market is looking for a modest rise in the headline rate to 2.2%, but higher oil prices will discount this, and is reflected in the core rate sticking to 1.8%. A pick up in the latter will be a little more encouraging as the Fed continue to hang their hopes on the Phillips Curve, qualifying by this with the relatively low productivity levels which are equally troubling for wage growth prospects.
In terms of the USD reaction, we will likely see 2 way action from the announcement to the press conference, but overall change will likely come down to the data this afternoon as well as retail sales tomorrow, with the market saturated by the full scope of expectations over the limited FOMC outcomes. Good reason to expect USD gains to be limited, with key levels seen against the JPY north of 114.00, while USD/CAD has a wall of selling interest from 1.2900 up. EUR/USD is also consistently chomping at the bit to resume the upside trend, and this adds up to a consolidation phase at best for the greenback, with recent gains still corrective in nature.
h3 US Dollar Index/h3By Rajan Dhall MSTA and Shant Movsesian
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