EUR/USD Trend Up
Eddie Tofpik | Feb 02, 2018 07:17
The Double Bottom in November 2017 transformed into a Reverse H+S during Dec 2017 and finally broke to the upside during this past Jan, achieving its target area of 1.2420 by the latter part of the month. Since then we've tried up to the Upper Tine of the June 2017 - November 2017 Bullish Schiff Pitchfork (currently 1.2551) which at the time was at 1.2535 and coincident with a minor high from the Noughttes before failing.
The 'minor high' I mentioned, I do not think was that significant but the Upper Tine was/is and since we've tested it we've fallen back to the nearby 50% Fib at 1.2348 and bounced back off. The market is sill exhibiting Bullishness but not as excessively as it did during the time it accelerated away from Reverse H+S Neckline (currently 1.2084).
It may look as if the market wishes to attempt higher but we do have some significant obstacles in the way. Apart from the December 2014 high (1.2570) we have appearing in the top right of the Daily Chart above, the 2011-to-date Downtrend (currently 1.2705) and the bigger 2008-to-date Downtrend (currently 1.2827). Any rise in the market will have to contend with these two descending resistances. That doesn't mean we may not try higher - just look at the MAs...all pointing upwards and continuing to do so. Rather it may be the market extending perhaps a little too much for the moment.
Now it could go the Third Way and travel sideways to alleviate this situation. However, it tends not to be the way of this pair so I'd suggest we may travel up along the underside of the Upper Tine of the SP until perhaps we meet the Downtrends. As I mentioned earlier...we're still Bullish on the MAs and may be for a while yet.
Support is currently at 1.2392, 1.2348, 1.2304, 1.2212, 1.2186(dynamic), 1.2160, 1.2084 (dynamic) and 1.2043.
Resistance is currently at 1.2475, 1.2536, 1.2551 (dynamic), 1.2570, 1.2602, 1.2705 (dynamic) and 1.2827 (dynamic).
As previously mentioned, all MAs point up...so bullet point above moves to fully Bullish.
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