EUR/USD: Trend Up?
Eddie Tofpik | Jun 05, 2017 07:47
I mentioned last time:
The MAs have three out of four heading higher so it is appropriate to move the bullet point above into mildly bullish.
This is sill the case as the Long MA is stubbornly holding to some old Fibs between 1.0812 - 1.0819 and going sideways. I also pointed out that
For those who look at the recent action as a possible Bull Flag...minus the pole...then I've placed a 'X' where an upside target could be...around 1.1125...
This has been achieved and we have seen further stuttering attempts higher to try to fulfil the 'X2' target for the Reverse H+S at around 1.1300 which was previously indicated as well. From this we can see that for the foreseeable future, the Apr Bullish Gap will remain an open wound seemingly for some time yet. Finally, when reviewing my last commentary I'd be remiss if I did not cover the two previously mentioned Tine Crossover dates of the 3 May and 10 May. If you recall, I mentioned to 'watch out for possible volatility, large ranges and maybe a change in direction'. Well, the 3rd I missed by one day as the 4th May was a key reversal up and despite being initially a failed attempt, it laid the groundwork for the ultimate try over 1.1200.
The 10 May also missed by one day as the 11th was the low for the whole month of May and thence started the big move up to where we finished the month. Maybe I should just add a day to the next Tine Crossover I have...probably wouldn't be too bad an idea.
Looking forward, we are only a few tics away from achieving the target of 1.1300ish for the Reverse H+S. However, the market has taken its time in getting there...which has actually been a good thing as though there is a lot of resistance above the market, the actual approach of the market towards it has also been good - notably the key reversal up (just) on the Daily Chart above and the subsequent new 2017 high plus also the not insignificant key reversal up on the Weekly Chart.
Now, I know the above Daily Chart action can also be interpreted as a Possible Double Top if early next week we try lower...but the Andrews Pitchfork I've drawn, the way the market is currently adhering to the Middle Tine plus the lagging but effective action of 3 out of 4 MAs pointing higher do seem to support a try up in the next week(s). As for resistance, it's pretty strong based mainly on the action between April - September 2016...so recent and fresh. I'd also add, we have a significant downtrend...from Aug 2015 (currently 1.1466) which if we were to try higher, would seem a suitable 'next' target once 1.1300 had been dealt with.
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Support, apart from the AP Tines is fairly absent till 1.1114 and not really significant till at least 1.1061 and probably not that good until we reach the 1.0925 - 1.0930 area. Reminded as I am that the Long MA has still not shifted higher nor have we broken 1.1300 level yet (2 consecutive closes over), I'm therefore inclined to keep the bullet point above mildly Bullish. Support is currently at 1.1267, 1.1250, 1.1234 (dynamic), 1.1158, 1.1114 - 1.1108, 1.1061, 1.1009 (combined), 1.0983 & 1.0932 - 1.0924.
Resistance is currently at 1.1285, 1.1300, 1.1327, 1.1364, 1.1432, 1.1458(dynamic), 1.1466 (dynamic) and 1.1616.
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