EUR/USD: Trend Down?
Eddie Tofpik | May 01, 2017 10:33
Last time I wrote the following when looking forward to the action during April...
'it would seem likely early next week to see further attempts lower but the moves to be tempered as we are approaching not only the Medium MA support (currently 1.0622) but also the near-term 50% Fib support at 1.0622 and the Lower Tine of the Jan - Mar Schiff Pitchfork (currently 1.0574). These would seem likely allies in slowing further aggressive moves lower.'.
The combined Medium MA and 50% Fib did hold up the market for a while but the Lower Tine of Schiff Pitchfork (currently 1.0648) managed to finish the job off though not without being penetrated. However, please note - no closes... none... underneath! Prices then turned around and back up mid-month till we came to French Election Sunday when we Gapped Up clear of even the Long MA and tested the Upper Tine (currently 1.0971) of a new Bullish Schiff Pitchfork I've drawn, along with a Bullish Andrews, of the March - April action.
Gapping is rare in FX, even more so in EUR as it is so, so liquid. Nevertheless, we have one here now and the question is what next. Well the MAs have three out of four heading higher so it is appropriate to move the bullet point above into mildly Bullish. We currently have support nearby from the Centre Tine (currently 1.0854) of the earlier Jan - Mar Schiff Pitchfork. We also have the Long MA as support at 1.0832 and a longer term 50% Fib at 1.0819. We then have the Gap till the pre-French Election Sunday high at 1.0777 on the previous Thursday. Three things happen to Gaps, they get filled and we try (in this case) higher, they are exploited with further attempts higher or they are the final gasp in any Bullish action. The actual action last week is unusual though not unique. It has many Matching Patterns without any exploitation or any retreat.
On the Daily Chart above we've a Bullish Harami for last Friday's action whilst on the Weekly Chart it has an Indecisive Doji Cross Pattern which could be building a Bearish Abandoned Baby Pattern...something else to bear in mind. With all these unsettled and somewhat contradictory signals, overall I'll settle with the bullet point above. However, I will point out two significant Tine crossover dates (circled above) from the newly drawn Tines - this coming Tuesday the 3rd of May and then 10th of May...watch out for possible volatility, large ranges and maybe a change in direction. Support is currently 1.0850, 1.0832(dynamic), 1.0804, 1.0789(dynamic), 1.0777 and 1.0759...only consecutive closes below this level would indicate a potential halt to any moves higher whilst consecutive closes below the super-band 1.0721 - 1.0706 would suggest a change in trend.
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Resistance is at 1.0932, 1.0950 - 1.0957 (dynamic), 1.0971, 1.1059 (dynamic) and 1.1181(dynamic). For those who look at the recent action as a possible Bull Flag...minus the pole...then I've placed a 'X' where an upside target could be...around 1.1125...but caution, nothing's settled...yet!
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