Daily Technical FX: EUR/USD Bearish Bias
Swissquote Ltd | Feb 22, 2018 10:57
EUR/USD Bearish bias
EUR/USD is decreasing further, breaking hourly support at 1.2276 (14/02/2018 low) and heading to further resistance at 1.2165 (17/01/2018 low). Hourly resistance at 1.2510 (15/02/2018 high) is distanced. The technical structure suggests further downside moves.
In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2886 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).
GBP/USD Drifting down
GBP/USD is decreasing below 1.39, trading between hourly support and resistance and 1.3742 (16/01/2018 low) and 1.4151 (05/02/2018 high). The technical structure suggests further short-term decline.
The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline but the pair is moving to 2016 highs. Long-term support and resistance are given at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low) and 1.5018 (24/06/2016 high).
USD/JPY Weakening
USD/JPY upward trend is losing steam, resuming its bearish pattern. Hourly support and resistance are given at 105.55 (16/02/2018) and 109.09 (31/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term downside moves.
We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support at 105.55 (03/05/2016 low) is almost reached. A gradual rise toward the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low).
USD/CHF Increase continues
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USD/CHF ended its short-term downward trend, heading for further rise along 0.94. Hourly resistance stands at 0.9470 (08/02/2018 high) while hourly support remains at 0.9188 (16/02/2018 low).
In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support lies at 0.9072 (07/05/2015 low) while resistance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high) is distanced. The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.
USD/CAD Monitoring resistance at 1.2716
USD/CAD keeps increasing, recovering from December downward trend. Hourly resistance at 1.2716 (04/12/2018 high) is almost reached while support at 1.2466 (15/02/2018 low) is distanced. The technical structure indicates that continued rise is expected in the short-term.
In the longer term, the pair is trading between resistance point at 1.3805 (05/05/2017 high) and support at 1.2128 (18/06/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pairs is trading below its 200 DMA.
AUD/USD Declining
AUD/USD continues its descent, approaching hourly support at 0.7773 (14/02/2018 low). Hourly resistance is maintained at 0.7999 (17/01/2018 high).
In the long-term, the upward trend resumes after failing to reach key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 low). Key support stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.
EUR/GBP Recovery bounce continues
EUR/GBP strong bounce continues, breaking hourly resistance at 0.8846 (12/12/2017 high) and distancing hourly support at 0.8774 (11/12/2017 low). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside moves.
In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from 2015 lows. The technical structure suggests further upside pressure. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level) while support remains at 0.8304 (05/12/2016 low). The pair is trading below its 200 DMA.
EUR/CHF Pausing before another leg higher
EUR/CHF recovery is slowing down at 1.152. The pair is trading between hourly support and resistance at 1.1487 (12/92/2918 low) and 1.162 (07/02/2018 high). The technical structure suggests further short-term upside moves.
In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's slowing QE program is likely to cause buying pressures on the euro, which should weigh in favour of the EUR/CHF. Support can be found at 1.0234 (20/04/2015 low).
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