Coffee To Trend Down
Eddie Tofpik | Mar 02, 2015 13:04
Feb started quietly for Coffee but the action on the 10th was the killer blow that started the current decline! A Key Reversal Down that though not immediately followed through also did not see any further attempts at the KR High and tipped over down soon thereafter.
I didn’t look to see if there were any sell stops under the 50% Absolute Fib at 153.23 but I strongly believe there may have been as that’s where it would have been logical and we carried on down – the recent Nov 2014 – Jan 1015 Schiff Pitchfork has been excellent directionally for the angle of attack of the market down!
So where now? Well, the lower Tine of the recent AP (currently 129.22) would seem a suitable first step but please also note the Lower Tine of the 2002 – 2014 Andrews Pitchfork (currently 120.45) & the 38.2% Absolute Fib at 117.03! I note the significant Bearish Dead Cross of the Medium MA down through the Long MA which nicely brings me to where we could find resistance – only consecutive closes over those MAs & the nearby Fibs would put the market into neutral and nothing bullish will happen until the 50% Absolute Fib at 153.23 has two consecutive closes over!
Finally, may I draw your attention to my second from last sentence from last time ‘…I have had the opportunity to draw some Bearish Pitchforks and I would point out the following crossover dates 27th Feb – 2nd Mar & 4th – 5th Mar. We may see volatility & key developments on those dates!’. There is no finessing needed so I will alter the bullet point above to fully bearish! Be cautious—a lot of TAs are seeing some potential major changes during Mar!
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