Coffee On A Bearish Course
Eddie Tofpik | Sep 08, 2015 14:33
I just wish to point this sentence I wrote in my last commentary over 4th Jul Weekend.
‘Finally we have the possibility of a Bullish Bow Tie Pattern on the MAs as well. So where now? Well, just suppose you take the Sep 2014 – Dec 2014 action as a First Leg, the action since then as a big imperfect Halfway Hesitation until mid-Jun, then you could look as the recent action as the start of the Second Leg of a huge & imperfect Halfway Hesitation. The Measured Move on that would be around 440 – or just before the next big Fib, the 38.2% Fib, of the Apr – Oct 2014 move.’.
I love it when a plan comes together! As you can see on the Daily Chart for Coffee, we’ve had a great move up to just short of 440 following my last commentary where we did a Bearish Doji Cross & Spike Down then tumbled to the mid-300s.
Interestingly, I have would normally have removed the 2008-to-date Uptrend (currently 353) as it had ‘failed’ but please note that though not perfect (you’d hardly expect such a thing after such a time I suppose) it is located quite close to an area lacking outward technical (as far as I can see) support apart from this broken old Uptrend.
Anyhow, the area 345 -350 does look supportive though there are opportunities to still look for lower prices – all 4 MAs are heading down – one ought to be cautious. It does look to me that the e345 – 350 area may form the base of possibly a Descending Triangle Pattern of some type but there also can be the argument for a very misshapen H+S Top. Either way, they all look seemingly bearish but have not reached fruition. I think this is echoed in the Weekly & Monthly Chart.
On the Weekly Chart we had 4 weeks ago a big Key Reversal Down which was followed by another less distinct one 2 weeks ago. It was so much less distinct that it could be mistaken for an Indecisive Spinning Top, unlike the Monthly Chart which has exactly that – an Indecisive Spinning Top… and there’s the problem - it looks like it ought to head down but it has redeeming features that suggest something else.
Accordingly I will move the bullet point as mildly bearish. Support is at 346, 342, 330, 324 7 318. Resistance is at 353 – 354, 356, 360, 368 & 373.
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