Bitcoin: Trend Up
Eddie Tofpik | Jan 01, 2018 06:54
This time last year I was looking at the Weekly Chart for Bitcoin and indicating a possible move up through 1,000...the first time since the Russian Ponzi Scheme mid-decade.
Bitcoin has since really caught the public imagination and we've seen an explosive growth and the listing of two futures contracts on two separate futures exchanges with more to come, as well as options. There has been much talk in media and elsewhere about the rise being a bubble...the similarities with other bubbles, notably the Tulipmania Bubble (the Dutch must getting sick of that - every time there's a bubble everyone trots out the tulips).
Some, myself included, have suggested that Bitcoin actually may be the needle that bursts other bubbles and how MIFID II may have actually assisted in Bitcoin's growth...but enough of that, you can read or see that elsewhere in my other work...though the schadenfreude exhibited by some on any fall in Bitcoin is particularly distasteful to note. Back to the Weekly Chart above, we've had a pullback, though not as bit as percentage as was seen in 2013. The key is that the market has not touched as yet the 50% Absolute Fib at 9830...that is still intact.
We have penetrated the 61.8% Absolute Fib at 12,150 but we've bounced up though pressure to test lower is still evident this past week. To halt the decline you'd need firstly, some consecutive Bullish closes and secondly further consecutive closes over the recent 50% Fib at 15,404. It does not look immediately as if there is enough strength to try down to 9,830 but the trauma is still there and I would not rule out another attempt lower maybe later. However, please bear in mind that we still have an intact 2017 based Uptrend (currently 7,748) so that even if the 9.830 level has two consecutive close below we still have further support underneath. With all MAs pointing upwards I feel obliged to still have the bullet point a fully Bullish though I'd reconsider to mildly on consecutive close below 9,830. Just in case, an optimised target for the upside would seem to be 23,921 ...just in case you understand.
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