AUD/USD: Trend Down?
Eddie Tofpik | Nov 06, 2017 05:55
Last time I wrote
l keep the bullet point at Neutral but the previously mentioned Bearish action plus now the idea that we may have later a possible Double/Triple Top for this market (see the Daily Chart above). I will indeed think carefully about moving the bullet point next time perhaps into at least Mildly Bearish. I have marked an 'X' as a preliminary target area for such a move should it start or occur.
I have in the meantime carefully thought about this matter and have decided to move the bullet point into mildly Bearish. This ought not to be a surprise as we have followed through with the action this month that was suggested last time with the exception of what was initially a hiccup but turned out to be a fortuitous Interim Double Top and let loose the next Bearish action.
In this past week or so we have closed below the Long MA and with MAs two up and two roughly up/sideways, being on the lower side of the Long MA supports the mildly Bearish stance. Additionally, the possible Bear Flag action over the last week assists in this outlook. The 'X' target for the main Bearish DT move still stands in the 0.7560 area. Now we come to the fly in the ointment - we have a band of Fib and low support from 0.7631 - 0.7638, including at least one important 50% Fib, holding prices up at the moment. This needs to be taken out fairly swiftly if the move lower is to continue.
It would not be the end if it was not done this coming week but with the sharply declining Bearish Channel that has run the market since early October, it would be appropriate to do so in the next couple as the Upper Channel Line (currently 0.7772) is approaching. Failure to do so and we might go back to Neutral with the Medium MA (currently 0.7837) running the resistance. For clarity, you'd currently need consecutive closes over 0.7875 to even look at going Bullish.
Support is currently at 0.7631 - 0.7623, 0.7567 - 0.7550, 0.7523 - 0.7518, 0.7368 and 0.7326.
Resistance is currently at 0.7697 (dynamic), 0.7726, 0.7755 - 0.7754, 0.7781, 0.7815 - 0.7820, 0.7875, 0.7897, 0.7913 and 0.7934 - 0.7943.
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