Aluminium Trend Down
Eddie Tofpik | Aug 03, 2018 08:09
Last time I wrote three tests for the market on its way down which proved to be very prescient:
The 1) Sep 2016-to-date Uptrend (currently 2067), 2) the Mar/Apr lows at 1977 and then 3) the key Lower Tine of the 2009 - 2018 Andrews Pitchfork (currently 1928)...these will be the test. Do I think they may have enough ammunition to overcome them...yes...but maybe not all of them? The current overhang is good but we've wasted a lot in the big move up and down earlier this year. So...down yes...as the MAs all point down...just be aware some of the support may be stronger than anticipated.
All I can add is that quote is the market proved good enough to smash 1) but failed so far to do over 2) and 3).
I write '...so far...' because the pullback we've had after taking out 1) has been very poor...almost neutral-like. We really only tried up one day last week and that failed. Nowhere near the very recent 50% Fib at 2177 and barely grazing the key 50% Fib of the 2011 - 2016 move at 2118. No...this fortunately or unfortunately looks like it may start to try down again soon after it has spent enough time fondling the broken Sep 2016 - Jul 2018 Uptrend.
Furthermore, I add to this suggestion the two Dead Crosses of the Short/Medium MA (currently 2166) down through the Medium MA (currently 2187) and also the Long MA (currently 2169). If we do head down, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts at the Jul low of 2001...we may just end up with a Double Bottom and not see prices continue as they have been. Watch carefully...but the bullet point above stays fully Bearish.
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