Aluminium: Trend Down
Eddie Tofpik | Jul 04, 2018 09:59
Last month I wrote how some congestion:
Just disguises the real strong support of three things: the Medium MA (currently 2206; the pullback low at 2175 and the Long MA (currently 2178J.
I was secure in these three being a strong enough support. However, for those who read and listen to my Weekly Technicals or my Daily Squawk when dealing with this metal, you will know I have recently taken to calling this a schizophrenic market...and with good cause. Two weeks ago we had a Daily Key Reversal Down through both the Medium MA and the Long MA.
We closed within the two MAs and you'd surmise correctly that it would be a Neutral market. Last week we punched down through the Long MA with a clear close below and using a Bearish Closing Long Black Marubozo...fine! Yet the next day we had a Key Reversal Up...OK...so the fall was premature. However, the very next day after that we had a Bearish Harami that closed us once again clearly under the Long MA...schizo or what!
Anyway...the last Pattern prevailed and we've headed down, the second lowest move since the Mar - Apr period. Oh...and we also formed a Dead Cross of the Short MA (currently 2199) down through the Medium MA as well.
We're resting on the minor Fib at 2081 and today we've had our two consecutive closes below the important 2011 - 2016 50% Fib at 2118. The move below the Medium and Long MAs was important and needed some work. However, the real test of support is still coming, the:
- Sep 2016-to-date Uptrend (currently 2044)
- The Mar/Apr lows at 1977 and then the key Lower Tine of the 2009 - 2018 Andrews Pitchfork (currently 1912)...these will be the test.
Do I think they may have enough ammunition to overcome them...yes...but maybe not all of them? The current overhang is good but we've wasted a lot in the big move up and down earlier this year. So...down yes...as the MAs all point down...just be aware some of the support may be stronger than anticipated.
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