Aluminium To Continue It's Descent
Eddie Tofpik | Jun 09, 2015 10:55
Last month I wrote ‘Further topside resistance would be at 1948 & 1977 but perhaps the best may be the Upper Tine of the 2013 – 2014 Andrews Pitchfork (currently 1977 but gradually heading lower).’It is absolutely lovely when the level you write – 1977 in this case – turns out to be the high for the month! Perfect!
What was not to useful to the nascent bullish trend in Aluminium was how once reaching the Upper Tine of the Andrews Pitchfork the market chose after the second of two sessions to reject the Key Reversal Up that led to the test of the Upper Tine of the AP and also to form a Bearish Pipe Top & come right off! Right down through previous Fib supports and make a new 2015 low, finishing the month of May with a KR Down on the Daily Chart. What I can tell without even looking at the Monthly Chart is we have a very big KR Down on the Monthly Chart.
That along with all MAs pointing down prompts me to turn the bullet point above into mildly bearish this month but to look to continue with full bearish next month. The only thing that has stopped me going full bearish is my natural conservativism and that sitting a little below the market is the 2014 low at 1671 PLUS the Middle Tine of the self-same Bearish AP that caused the decline and is coincident with the 2014 low at 1671! Two consecutive closes below this and prices turn fully bearish.
Topside, you’d need to have at least two consecutive close over the 50% Fib formed of the May action (currently 1854) but neutral would only be consecutive closes over the Long MA (currently 1904).
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